Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9eb2 |
Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach | |
Trutnevyte, Evelina1,2; Azevedo, Ines L.3 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; USA |
英文摘要 | Induced seismicity is a concern for multiple geoenergy applications, including low-carbon enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). We present the results of an international expert elicitation (n = 14) on EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. Using a hypothetical scenario of an EGS plant and its geological context, we show that expert best-guess estimates of annualized exceedance probabilities of an M >= 3 event range from 0.2%-95% during reservoir stimulation and 0.2%-100% during operation. Best-guess annualized exceedance probabilities of M >= 5 event span from 0.002%-2% during stimulation and 0.003%-3% during operation. Assuming that tectonic M7 events could occur, some experts do not exclude induced (triggered) events of up to M7 too. If an induced M >= 3 event happens at 5 km depth beneath a town with 10 000 inhabitants, most experts estimate a 50% probability that the loss is contained within 500 000 USD without any injuries or fatalities. In the case of an induced M=5 event, there is 50% chance that the loss is below 50 million USD with the most-likely outcome of 50 injuries and one fatality or none. As we observe a vast diversity in quantitative expert judgements and underlying mental models, we conclude with implications for induced seismicity risk governance. That is, we suggest documenting individual expert judgements in induced seismicity elicitations before proceeding to consensual judgements, to convene larger expert panels in order not to cherry-pick the experts, and to aim for multi-organization multi-model assessments of EGS induced seismicity hazard and risk. |
英文关键词 | enhanced geothermal systems induced seismicity expert elicitation risk assessment risk governance |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425435300004 |
WOS关键词 | FLUID INJECTION ; SWITZERLAND ; EARTHQUAKES ; PROJECT ; BASEL |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36501 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.ETH, Dept Environm Syst Sci D USYS, Univ Str 16, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 2.Swiss Competence Ctr Energy Res Supply Elect, Sonneggstr 5, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland; 3.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Trutnevyte, Evelina,Azevedo, Ines L.. Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(3). |
APA | Trutnevyte, Evelina,&Azevedo, Ines L..(2018).Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(3). |
MLA | Trutnevyte, Evelina,et al."Induced seismicity hazard and risk by enhanced geothermal systems: an expert elicitation approach".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.3(2018). |
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