GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aa5254
Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities
Maria Abadie, Luis; Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa
2017
发表期刊ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN1748-9326
出版年2017
卷号12期号:1
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain
英文摘要

A quantification of present and future mean annual losses due to extreme coastal events can be crucial for adequate decision making on adaptation to climate change in coastal areas around the globe. However, this approach is limited when uncertainty needs to be accounted for. In this paper, we assess coastal flood risk from sea-level rise and extreme events in 120 major cities around the world using an alternative stochastic approach that accounts for uncertainty. Probability distributions of future relative (local) sea-level rise have been used for each city, under three IPPC emission scenarios, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The approach allows a continuous stochastic function to be built to assess yearly evolution of damages from 2030 to 2100. Additionally, we present two risk measures that put low-probability, high-damage events in the spotlight: the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES), which enable the damages to be estimated when a certain risk level is exceeded. This level of acceptable risk can be defined involving different stakeholders to guide progressive adaptation strategies. The method presented here is new in the field of economics of adaptation and offers a much broader picture of the challenges related to dealing with climate impacts. Furthermore, it can be applied to assess not only adaptation needs but also to put adaptation into a timeframe in each city.


英文关键词risk measures coastal flooding stochastic models climate change progressive adaptation sea-level rise
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000394131200002
WOS关键词SEA-LEVEL RISE ; CLIMATE ; ECONOMICS ; PROJECTIONS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36484
专题气候变化
作者单位Basque Ctr Climate Change, Leioa 48940, Spain
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Maria Abadie, Luis,Galarraga, Ibon,Sainz de Murieta, Elisa. Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(1).
APA Maria Abadie, Luis,Galarraga, Ibon,&Sainz de Murieta, Elisa.(2017).Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(1).
MLA Maria Abadie, Luis,et al."Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.1(2017).
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