Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5254 |
Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities | |
Maria Abadie, Luis; Galarraga, Ibon; Sainz de Murieta, Elisa | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
英文摘要 | A quantification of present and future mean annual losses due to extreme coastal events can be crucial for adequate decision making on adaptation to climate change in coastal areas around the globe. However, this approach is limited when uncertainty needs to be accounted for. In this paper, we assess coastal flood risk from sea-level rise and extreme events in 120 major cities around the world using an alternative stochastic approach that accounts for uncertainty. Probability distributions of future relative (local) sea-level rise have been used for each city, under three IPPC emission scenarios, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The approach allows a continuous stochastic function to be built to assess yearly evolution of damages from 2030 to 2100. Additionally, we present two risk measures that put low-probability, high-damage events in the spotlight: the Value at Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES), which enable the damages to be estimated when a certain risk level is exceeded. This level of acceptable risk can be defined involving different stakeholders to guide progressive adaptation strategies. The method presented here is new in the field of economics of adaptation and offers a much broader picture of the challenges related to dealing with climate impacts. Furthermore, it can be applied to assess not only adaptation needs but also to put adaptation into a timeframe in each city. |
英文关键词 | risk measures coastal flooding stochastic models climate change progressive adaptation sea-level rise |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000394131200002 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-LEVEL RISE ; CLIMATE ; ECONOMICS ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36484 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Basque Ctr Climate Change, Leioa 48940, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maria Abadie, Luis,Galarraga, Ibon,Sainz de Murieta, Elisa. Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(1). |
APA | Maria Abadie, Luis,Galarraga, Ibon,&Sainz de Murieta, Elisa.(2017).Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(1). |
MLA | Maria Abadie, Luis,et al."Understanding risks in the light of uncertainty: low-probability, high-impact coastal events in cities".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.1(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论