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DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4db |
Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing | |
Menegoz, M.1; Bilbao, R.1; Bellprat, O.1; Guemas, V.1; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.1,2 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 13期号:6 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain |
英文摘要 | The last major volcanic eruptions, the Agung in 1963, El Chichon in 1982 and Pinatubo in 1991, were each associated with a cooling of the troposphere that has been observed over large continental areas and over the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Atlantic. Simultaneously, Eastern tropical Pacific temperatures increased due to prevailing El Ni no conditions. Here we show that the pattern of these near-surface temperature anomalies is partly reproduced with decadal simulations of the EC-Earth model initialised with climate observations and forced with an estimate of the observed volcanic aerosol optical thickness. Sensitivity experiments highlight a cooling induced by the volcanic forcing, whereas El Nino events following the eruptions would have occurred even without volcanic eruptions. Focusing on the period 1961-2001, the main source of skill of this decadal forecast system during the first 2 years is related to the initialisation of the model. The contribution of the initialisation to the skill becomes smaller than the contribution of the volcanic forcing after two years, the latter being substantial in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Western Atlantic. Two simple protocols for real time forecasts are investigated: using the forcing of a past volcanic eruption to simulate the forcing of a new one, and applying a two-year exponential decay to the initial stratospheric aerosol load observed at the beginning of the forecast. This second protocol applied in retrospective forecasts allows a partial reproduction of the skill attained with observed forcing. |
英文关键词 | ENSO decadal forecast climate variability volcanic aerosols skill of forecast systems |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434489800001 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL TEMPERATURE ; POLAR VORTEX ; EL-NINO ; IMPACT ; OSCILLATION ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; IMPROVEMENTS ; SENSITIVITY ; TRIGGER |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36457 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Edifici Nexus 2,C Jordi Girona 31, Barcelona 08034, Spain; 2.ICREA, Pg Lluis Co 23, Barcelona 08010, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Menegoz, M.,Bilbao, R.,Bellprat, O.,et al. Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,13(6). |
APA | Menegoz, M.,Bilbao, R.,Bellprat, O.,Guemas, V.,&Doblas-Reyes, F. J..(2018).Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,13(6). |
MLA | Menegoz, M.,et al."Forecasting the climate response to volcanic eruptions: prediction skill related to stratospheric aerosol forcing".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 13.6(2018). |
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