Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate | |
Garcia-Serrano, J.1,2; Frankignoul, C.1; King, M. P.3,4; Arribas, A.5; Gao, Y.6,7; Guemas, V.2,8; Matei, D.9; Msadek, R.10,11; Park, W.12; Sanchez-Gomez, E.11 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Spain; Norway; England; Peoples R China; Germany; USA |
英文摘要 | A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland-Barents-Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979-2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on the mean-flow and parameterizations, which could lead to misleading conclusions elsewhere if a multi-model ensemble-mean approach is adopted. It might also represent an important source of uncertainty in climate prediction and projection. Modelling efforts are hence further required to improve representation of the background atmospheric circulation and reduce biases, in order to attain more accurate covariability. |
英文关键词 | Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000410803300011 |
WOS关键词 | STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; WINTER CIRCULATION ; SST ANOMALIES ; WAVE ACTIVITY ; ANNULAR MODE ; IMPACT ; AMPLIFICATION ; WEATHER ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36416 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Sorbonne Univ UPMC CNRS IRD MNHN, LOCEAN IPSL, Paris, France; 2.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr BSC CNS, Dept Earth Sci, Barcelona, Spain; 3.Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway; 4.BCCR, Bergen, Norway; 5.MetOff Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 6.IAP CAS, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 7.Nansen Environm & Remote Sensing Ctr NERSC BCCR, Bergen, Norway; 8.Meteo France, CNRM GMGEC, Toulouse, France; 9.Max Plank Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; 10.NOAA, GFDL, Princeton, NJ USA; 11.CNRS, CERFACS, Toulouse, France; 12.GEOMAR Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res, Kiel, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Garcia-Serrano, J.,Frankignoul, C.,King, M. P.,et al. Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Garcia-Serrano, J..,Frankignoul, C..,King, M. P..,Arribas, A..,Gao, Y..,...&Sanchez-Gomez, E..(2017).Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Garcia-Serrano, J.,et al."Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论