Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3831-6 |
Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China | |
Wang, Zhu1,2,3; Shi, Peijun1,2,3; Zhang, Zhao1,2,3; Meng, Yongchang1,2,3; Luan, Yibo1,2,3; Wang, Jiwei1,2,3 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:4469-4487 |
文章类型 | Article;Proceedings Paper |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the fluctuation threshold which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented trade-offs among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12.99%). Finally, the methodology use to separate out the influences of the climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield was proved to be feasible and robust. Designing different climate scenarios and feeding them into a crop system model is a potential way to evaluate the quantitative impact of each climate variable. |
英文关键词 | Climatic trend Climatic fluctuations Extreme events Rice yield Climate impact |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI ; ISTP |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451725600033 |
WOS关键词 | RICE YIELDS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY ; NIGHT TEMPERATURE ; PADDY RICE ; MODELS ; CULTIVARS ; SYSTEM ; GROWTH |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36395 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Zhu,Shi, Peijun,Zhang, Zhao,et al. Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:4469-4487. |
APA | Wang, Zhu,Shi, Peijun,Zhang, Zhao,Meng, Yongchang,Luan, Yibo,&Wang, Jiwei.(2018).Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,4469-4487. |
MLA | Wang, Zhu,et al."Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):4469-4487. |
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