Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3151-2 |
An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system | |
Johnson, Stephanie J.1,2; Turner, Andrew1; Woolnough, Steven1; Martin, Gill3; MacLachlan, Craig3 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement. |
英文关键词 | Indian monsoon Seasonal forecasting Indian Ocean dipole |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000395060900004 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; COUPLED MODEL ; BOREAL SUMMER ; COLD-TONGUE ; ZONAL MODE ; EL-NINO ; PART 1 ; OCEAN ; RAINFALL ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36388 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Earley Gate, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England; 2.ECMWF, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England; 3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Johnson, Stephanie J.,Turner, Andrew,Woolnough, Steven,et al. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Johnson, Stephanie J.,Turner, Andrew,Woolnough, Steven,Martin, Gill,&MacLachlan, Craig.(2017).An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Johnson, Stephanie J.,et al."An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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