Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3235-z |
Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study | |
Mitsui, Takahito1; Crucifix, Michel1,2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Belgium |
英文摘要 | The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record. |
英文关键词 | Dansgaard-Oeschger events Abrupt millennial-scale climate changes Statistical modelling Orbital insolation forcing Global ice volume change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000398926400037 |
WOS关键词 | LAST GLACIAL PERIOD ; ICE-CORE RECORD ; DANSGAARD-OESCHGER OSCILLATIONS ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; SALT OSCILLATOR ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; STOCHASTIC RESONANCE ; DYNAMICAL-SYSTEMS ; OCEAN CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36386 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Catholic Univ Louvain, Earth & Life Inst, Georges Lemaitre Ctr Earth & Climate Res, BE-1348 Louvain La Neuve, Belgium; 2.Belgian Natl Fund Sci Res, Rue Egmont,5, BE-1000 Brussels, Belgium |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mitsui, Takahito,Crucifix, Michel. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Mitsui, Takahito,&Crucifix, Michel.(2017).Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Mitsui, Takahito,et al."Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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