Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4181-8 |
Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects | |
Fernandez, J.1; Frias, M. D.1; Cabos, W. D.2; Cofino, A. S.1; Dominguez, M.4; Fita, L.5; Gaertner, M. A.4; Garcia-Diez, M.3; Gutierrez, J. M.6; Jimenez-Guerrero, P.7; Liguori, G.2; Montavez, J. P.7; Romera, R.4; Sanchez, E.4 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:1139-1156 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Spain; Argentina |
英文摘要 | We present an unprecedented ensemble of 196 future climate projections arising from different global and regional model intercomparison projects (MIPs): CMIP3, CMIP5, ENSEMBLES, ESCENA, EURO- and Med-CORDEX. This multi-MIP ensemble includes all regional climate model (RCM) projections publicly available to date, along with their driving global climate models (GCMs). We illustrate consistent and conflicting messages using continental Spain and the Balearic Islands as target region. The study considers near future (2021-2050) changes and their dependence on several uncertainty sources sampled in the multi-MIP ensemble: GCM, future scenario, internal variability, RCM, and spatial resolution. This initial work focuses on mean seasonal precipitation and temperature changes. The results show that the potential GCM-RCM combinations have been explored very unevenly, with favoured GCMs and large ensembles of a few RCMs that do not respond to any ensemble design. Therefore, the grand-ensemble is weighted towards a few models. The selection of a balanced, credible sub-ensemble is challenged in this study by illustrating several conflicting responses between the RCM and its driving GCM and among different RCMs. Sub-ensembles from different initiatives are dominated by different uncertainty sources, being the driving GCM the main contributor to uncertainty in the grand-ensemble. For this analysis of the near future changes, the emission scenario does not lead to a strong uncertainty. Despite the extra computational effort, for mean seasonal changes, the increase in resolution does not lead to important changes. |
英文关键词 | Regional climate change Near surface temperature precipitation ESCENA ENSEMBLES CORDEX |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460619200063 |
WOS关键词 | GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; PART II ; HEAT ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; SIMULATIONS ; ENSEMBLE ; CORDEX |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36372 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Cantabria, Dept Matemat Aplicada & Ciencias Comp, Grp Meteorol & Comp, Avda Castros S-N, E-39005 Santander, Spain; 2.Univ Alcala De Henares, Dept Fis & Matemat, Madrid 28805, Spain; 3.Predictia Intelligent Data Solut, Santander 39005, Spain; 4.Univ Castilla La Mancha, Avda Carlos III S-N, Toledo 45071, Spain; 5.UBA, CONICET, CIMA, CNRS,UMI IFAECI, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; 6.Univ Cantabria, CSIC, Inst Fis Cantabria IFCA, Grp Meteorol, Avda Castros S-N, Santander 39005, Spain; 7.Univ Murcia, Dept Fis, Campus Excelencia Int Mare Nostrum, E-30100 Murcia, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fernandez, J.,Frias, M. D.,Cabos, W. D.,et al. Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:1139-1156. |
APA | Fernandez, J..,Frias, M. D..,Cabos, W. D..,Cofino, A. S..,Dominguez, M..,...&Sanchez, E..(2019).Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,1139-1156. |
MLA | Fernandez, J.,et al."Consistency of climate change projections from multiple global and regional model intercomparison projects".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):1139-1156. |
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