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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3070-2 |
The statistical extended-range (10-30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China | |
Zhu, Zhiwei1,2; Li, Tim1,2 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | The extended-range (10-30-day) rainfall forecast over the entire China was carried out using spatial-temporal projection models (STPMs). Using a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis of intraseasonal (10-80-day) rainfall anomalies, China is divided into ten sub-regions. Different predictability sources were selected for each of the ten regions. The forecast skills are ranked for each region. Based on temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) and Gerrity skill score, useful skills are found for most parts of China at a 20-25-day lead. The southern China and the mid-lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley show the highest predictive skills, whereas southwestern China and Huang-Huai region have the lowest predictive skills. By combining forecast results from ten regional STPMs, the TCC distribution of 8-year (2003-2010) independent forecast for the entire China is investigated. The combined forecast results from ten STPMs show significantly higher skills than the forecast with just one single STPM for the entire China. Independent forecast examples of summer rainfall anomalies around the period of Beijing Olympic Games in 2008 and Shanghai World Expo in 2010 are presented. The result shows that the current model is able to reproduce the gross pattern of the summer intraseasonal rainfall over China at a 20-day lead. The present study provides, for the first time, a guide on the statistical extended-range forecast of summer rainfall anomalies for the entire China. It is anticipated that the ideas and methods proposed here will facilitate the extended-range forecast in China. |
英文关键词 | Extended-range forecast Summer rainfall anomalies over China Spatial-temporal projection model Intraseasonal oscillation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392307300012 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ; CLIMATE MODELS ; SOUTH CHINA ; EAST-ASIA ; MONSOON ; MJO ; CIRCULATION ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36359 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, CIC FEMD, Minist Educ KLME,Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Atmospher Sci, Int Pacific Res Ctr, SOEST, 1680 East West Rd,POST Bldg 401, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Zhiwei,Li, Tim. The statistical extended-range (10-30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Zhu, Zhiwei,&Li, Tim.(2017).The statistical extended-range (10-30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Zhu, Zhiwei,et al."The statistical extended-range (10-30-day) forecast of summer rainfall anomalies over the entire China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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