Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3063-1 |
Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models | |
Kim, Ok-Yeon1; Kim, Hye-Mi2; Lee, Myong-In3; Min, Young-Mi1 | |
2017 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea; USA |
英文摘要 | This study aims at predicting the seasonal number of typhoons (TY) over the western North Pacific with an Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME)-based dynamical-statistical hybrid model. The hybrid model uses the statistical relationship between the number of TY during the typhoon season (July-October) and the large-scale key predictors forecasted by APCC MME for the same season. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates high prediction skill, with a correlation of 0.67 between the hindcasts and observation for 1982-2008. The cross validation from the hybrid model with individual models participating in MME indicates that there is no single model which consistently outperforms the other models in predicting typhoon number. Although the forecast skill of MME is not always the highest compared to that of each individual model, the skill of MME presents rather higher averaged correlations and small variance of correlations. Given large set of ensemble members from multi-models, a relative operating characteristic score reveals an 82 % (above-) and 78 % (below-normal) improvement for the probabilistic prediction of the number of TY. It implies that there is 82 % (78 %) probability that the forecasts can successfully discriminate between above normal (below-normal) from other years. The forecast skill of the hybrid model for the past 7 years (2002-2008) is more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. Using large set of ensemble members from multi-models, the APCC MME could provide useful deterministic and probabilistic seasonal typhoon forecasts to the end-users in particular, the residents of tropical cyclone-prone areas in the Asia-Pacific region. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal tropical cyclones Western North Pacific Multimodel ensemble Deterministic and probabilistic forecasts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000392307300005 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ; ABSOLUTE DEVIATION REGRESSION ; UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ; INTENSITY CHANGES ; CLUSTER-ANALYSIS ; MONSOON TROUGH ; CLIMATE ; SCALE ; ENSEMBLE ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36311 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.APEC Climate Ctr APCC, 12,Ctr 7 Ro, Busan, South Korea; 2.SUNY Stony Brook, Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA; 3.UNIST, Sch Urban & Environm Engn, Ulsan, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kim, Ok-Yeon,Kim, Hye-Mi,Lee, Myong-In,et al. Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Kim, Ok-Yeon,Kim, Hye-Mi,Lee, Myong-In,&Min, Young-Mi.(2017).Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Kim, Ok-Yeon,et al."Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论