GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4202-7
Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors
Tao, Ling-Jiang1,2; Gao, Chuan1,3; Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2,3
2019-02-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:1425-1441
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

Errors in initial conditions and model parameters (MPs) are the main sources that limit the accuracy of ENSO predictions. In addition to exploring the initial error-induced prediction errors, model errors are equally important in determining prediction performance. In this paper, the MP-related optimal errors that can cause prominent error growth in ENSO predictions are investigated using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Two MPs related to the Bjerknes feedback are considered in the CNOP analysis: one involves the SST-surface wind coupling (), and the other involves the thermocline effect on the SST (Te). The MP-related optimal perturbations (denoted as CNOP-P) are found uniformly positive and restrained in a small region: the component is mainly concentrated in the central equatorial Pacific, and the Te component is mainly located in the eastern cold tongue region. This kind of CNOP-P enhances the strength of the Bjerknes feedback and induces an El Nino- or La Nina-like error evolution, resulting in an El Nino-like systematic bias in this model. The CNOP-P is also found to play a role in the spring predictability barrier (SPB) for ENSO predictions. Evidently, such error growth is primarily attributed to MP errors in small areas based on the localized distribution of CNOP-P. Further sensitivity experiments firmly indicate that ENSO simulations are sensitive to the representation of SST-surface wind coupling in the central Pacific and tothe thermocline effect in the eastern Pacific in the ICM. These results provide guidance and theoretical support for the future improvement in numerical models to reduce the systematic bias and SPB phenomenon in ENSO predictions.


英文关键词Intermediate coupled model CNOP approach Model parameters El Nino predictability
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000460902200008
WOS关键词SPRING PREDICTABILITY BARRIER ; INTERMEDIATE COUPLED MODEL ; NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION ; SINGULAR VECTOR ANALYSIS ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; ENTRAINMENT TEMPERATURE ; SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; ENSO PREDICTIONS ; OPTIMAL-GROWTH
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36229
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China;
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 10029, Peoples R China;
3.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
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Tao, Ling-Jiang,Gao, Chuan,Zhang, Rong-Hua. Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:1425-1441.
APA Tao, Ling-Jiang,Gao, Chuan,&Zhang, Rong-Hua.(2019).Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,1425-1441.
MLA Tao, Ling-Jiang,et al."Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):1425-1441.
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