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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3388-9 |
Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales | |
Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.1; Barthelemy, A.2; Chevallier, M.3; Cullather, R.4; Fuckar, N.5; Massonnet, F.2,5; Posey, P.6; Wang, W.7; Zhang, J.8; Ardilouze, C.3; Bitz, C. M.1; Vernieres, G.4,9; Wallcraft, A.6; Wang, M.10,11 | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Belgium; France; Spain |
英文摘要 | Dynamical model forecasts in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) of September Arctic sea-ice extent over the last decade have shown lower skill than that found in both idealized model experiments and hindcasts of previous decades. Additionally, it is unclear how different model physics, initial conditions or forecast post-processing (bias correction) techniques contribute to SIO forecast uncertainty. In this work, we have produced a seasonal forecast of 2015 Arctic summer sea ice using SIO dynamical models initialized with identical sea-ice thickness in the central Arctic. Our goals are to calculate the relative contribution of model uncertainty and irreducible error growth to forecast uncertainty and assess the importance of post-processing, and to contrast pan-Arctic forecast uncertainty with regional forecast uncertainty. We find that prior to forecast post-processing, model uncertainty is the main contributor to forecast uncertainty, whereas after forecast post-processing forecast uncertainty is reduced overall, model uncertainty is reduced by an order of magnitude, and irreducible error growth becomes the main contributor to forecast uncertainty. While all models generally agree in their post-processed forecasts of September sea-ice volume and extent, this is not the case for sea-ice concentration. Additionally, forecast uncertainty of sea-ice thickness grows at a much higher rate along Arctic coastlines relative to the central Arctic ocean. Potential ways of offering spatial forecast information based on the timescale over which the forecast signal beats the noise are also explored. |
英文关键词 | Sea ice Seasonal forecast Arctic Forecast uncertainty |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000407247200015 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE PREDICTIONS ; INITIAL CONDITIONS ; THICKNESS ; PREDICTABILITY ; ENSEMBLE ; SKILL ; DEPENDENCE ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36216 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Catholic Univ Louvain, Georges Lemaitre Ctr Earth & Climate Res, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium; 3.Meteo France, UMR 3589, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Toulouse, France; 4.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD USA; 5.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain; 6.Naval Res Lab, Hancock Cty, MS USA; 7.NOAA NWS NCEP Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA; 8.Univ Washington, Appl Phys Lab, Polar Sci Ctr, Seattle, WA 98105 USA; 9.Sci Syst & Applicat Inc, Greenbelt, MD USA; 10.Univ Washington, Joint Inst Study Atmosphere & Ocean, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 11.NOAA, Pacific Marine Environm Lab, 7600 Sand Point Way Ne, Seattle, WA 98115 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,Barthelemy, A.,Chevallier, M.,et al. Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49(4). |
APA | Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E..,Barthelemy, A..,Chevallier, M..,Cullather, R..,Fuckar, N..,...&Wang, M..(2017).Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49(4). |
MLA | Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.,et al."Multi-model seasonal forecast of Arctic sea-ice: forecast uncertainty at pan-Arctic and regional scales".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49.4(2017). |
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