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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3880-x |
North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections | |
Beyene, Mussie T.; Jain, Shaleen | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:4365-4377 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections induced wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over North America show inter-event variability, asymmetry, and nonlinearity. This diagnostic study appraises the assumption that ENSO-induced teleconnections are adequately characterized as symmetric shifts in the SAT probability distributions for North American locations. To this end, a new conditional quantile functional estimation approach presented here incorporates: (a) the detailed nature of location and amplitude of SST anomalies-in particular the Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP) ENSO events-based on its two leading principal components, and (b) over the entire range of SATs, characterize the differential sensitivity to ENSO. Statistical significance is assessed using a wild bootstrap approach. Conditional risk at upper and lower quartile SAT conditioned on archetypical ENSO states is derived. There is marked asymmetry in ENSO effects on the likelihood of upper and lower quartile winter SATs for most North American regions. CP El Nio patterns show 20-80% decrease in the likelihood of lower quartile SATs for Canada and US west coast and a 20-40% increase across southeastern US. However, the upper quartile SAT for large swathes of Canada shows no sensitivity to CP El Nio. Similarly, EP El Nio is linked to a 40-80% increase in the probability of upper quartile winter SATs for Canada and northern US and a 20% decrease for southern US and northern Mexico regions; however, little or no change in the risk of lower quartile winter temperatures for southern parts of North America. Localized estimate of ENSO-related risk are also presented. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000432597400024 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL SST ANOMALIES ; NINO ; PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36204 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Maine, Orono, ME 04469 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Beyene, Mussie T.,Jain, Shaleen. North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:4365-4377. |
APA | Beyene, Mussie T.,&Jain, Shaleen.(2018).North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,4365-4377. |
MLA | Beyene, Mussie T.,et al."North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):4365-4377. |
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