GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-017-3880-x
North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections
Beyene, Mussie T.; Jain, Shaleen
2018-06-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2018
卷号50页码:4365-4377
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections induced wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over North America show inter-event variability, asymmetry, and nonlinearity. This diagnostic study appraises the assumption that ENSO-induced teleconnections are adequately characterized as symmetric shifts in the SAT probability distributions for North American locations. To this end, a new conditional quantile functional estimation approach presented here incorporates: (a) the detailed nature of location and amplitude of SST anomalies-in particular the Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP) ENSO events-based on its two leading principal components, and (b) over the entire range of SATs, characterize the differential sensitivity to ENSO. Statistical significance is assessed using a wild bootstrap approach. Conditional risk at upper and lower quartile SAT conditioned on archetypical ENSO states is derived. There is marked asymmetry in ENSO effects on the likelihood of upper and lower quartile winter SATs for most North American regions. CP El Nio patterns show 20-80% decrease in the likelihood of lower quartile SATs for Canada and US west coast and a 20-40% increase across southeastern US. However, the upper quartile SAT for large swathes of Canada shows no sensitivity to CP El Nio. Similarly, EP El Nio is linked to a 40-80% increase in the probability of upper quartile winter SATs for Canada and northern US and a 20% decrease for southern US and northern Mexico regions; however, little or no change in the risk of lower quartile winter temperatures for southern parts of North America. Localized estimate of ENSO-related risk are also presented.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000432597400024
WOS关键词TROPICAL SST ANOMALIES ; NINO ; PACIFIC
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36204
专题气候变化
作者单位Univ Maine, Orono, ME 04469 USA
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Beyene, Mussie T.,Jain, Shaleen. North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:4365-4377.
APA Beyene, Mussie T.,&Jain, Shaleen.(2018).North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,4365-4377.
MLA Beyene, Mussie T.,et al."North American wintertime temperature anomalies: the role of El Nio diversity and differential teleconnections".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):4365-4377.
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