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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4096-4 |
Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model | |
Chan, Steven C.1; Kahana, Ron2; Kendon, Elizabeth J.2; Fowler, Hayley J.1 | |
2018-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:3559-3577 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | The UK Met Office has previously conducted convection-permitting climate simulations over the southern UK (Kendon et al. in Nat Clim Change 4:570-576, 2014). The southern UK simulations have been followed up by a new set of northern UK simulations using the same model configuration. Here we present the mean and extreme precipitation projections from these new simulations. Relative to the southern UK, the northern UK projections show a greater summertime increase of return levels and extreme precipitation intensity in both 1.5 km convection-permitting and 12 km convection-parameterised simulations, but this increase is against a backdrop of large decreases in summertime mean precipitation and precipitation frequency. Similar to the southern UK, projected change is model resolution dependent and the convection-permitting simulation projects a larger intensification. For winter, return level increases are somewhat lower than for the southern UK. Analysis of model biases highlight challenges in simulating the diurnal cycle over high terrain, sensitivity to domain size and driving-GCM biases, and quality issues of radar precipitation observations, which are relevant to the wider regional climate modelling community. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000447366100022 |
WOS关键词 | SIMULATION ; CONVECTION ; DURATION ; SYSTEM ; SCALES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36199 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chan, Steven C.,Kahana, Ron,Kendon, Elizabeth J.,et al. Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3559-3577. |
APA | Chan, Steven C.,Kahana, Ron,Kendon, Elizabeth J.,&Fowler, Hayley J..(2018).Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3559-3577. |
MLA | Chan, Steven C.,et al."Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3559-3577. |
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