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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3230-4 |
Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models | |
Smith, Karen L.1; Polvani, Lorenzo M.2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The recent annually averaged warming of the Antarctic Peninsula, and of West Antarctica, stands in stark contrast to very small trends over East Antarctica. This asymmetry arises primarily from a highly significant warming of West Antarctica in austral spring and a cooling of East Antarctica in austral autumn. Here we examine whether this East-West asymmetry is a response to anthropogenic climate forcings or a manifestation of natural climate variability. We compare the observed Antarctic surface air temperature trends over two distinct time periods (1960-2005 and 1979-2005), and with those simulated by 40 models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find that the observed East-West asymmetry differs substantially between the two periods and, furthermore, that it is completely absent from the forced response seen in the CMIP5 multi-model mean, from which all natural variability is eliminated by the averaging. We also examine the relationship between the Southern Annular mode (SAM) and Antarctic temperature trends, in both models and reanalyses, and again conclude that there is little evidence of anthropogenic SAM-induced driving of the recent temperature trends. These results offer new, compelling evidence pointing to natural climate variability as a key contributor to the recent warming of West Antarctica and of the Peninsula. |
英文关键词 | Antarctic climate change Climate variability Coupled climate models |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000398926400033 |
WOS关键词 | AMUNDSEN SEA LOW ; SOUTHERN ANNULAR MODE ; WEST ANTARCTICA ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; ICE TRENDS ; CIRCULATION CHANGES ; OZONE DEPLETION ; OCEAN ; SENSITIVITY ; REANALYSES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36180 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Div Ocean & Climate Phys, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Smith, Karen L.,Polvani, Lorenzo M.. Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48. |
APA | Smith, Karen L.,&Polvani, Lorenzo M..(2017).Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48. |
MLA | Smith, Karen L.,et al."Spatial patterns of recent Antarctic surface temperature trends and the importance of natural variability: lessons from multiple reconstructions and the CMIP5 models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017). |
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