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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3320-3 |
Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon relationship | |
Cash, Benjamin A.1; Barimalala, Rondrotiana3; Kinter, James L., III1; Altshuler, Eric L.1; Fennessy, Michael J.1; Manganello, Julia V.1; Molteni, Franco2; Towers, Peter2; Vitart, Frederic2 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The impact of sampling variability on the correlation between all-India rainfall (AIR) and the El Nio-Southern Oscillation is investigated in a large ensemble of seasonal climate simulations made using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Ensemble Prediction System at T319 (64 km). The analyzed runs consist of 51 ensemble members initialized each May 1 for the period 1980-2011 and integrated for 7 months. 10,000 pairs of 32-year timeseries of June-September (JJAS) mean AIR and NINO3 indices are created from this database by randomly drawing one of the 51 ensemble members for each year. The correlation between each pair of AIR and NINO3 series is then calculated, generating a distribution of AIR-NINO3 correlation values. The model is reinitialized with observations each May 1 and thus all members are drawn from the same background state by construction and any differences in correlation are attributable to sampling variability. The spread in the calculated correlation values and the differences between 32-year segments are sufficient to explain the observed variations in AIR-NINO3 correlation since the beginning of the 1900s, including the sharp decrease in correlation strength since the late 1970s. Sampling variability thus represents a strong null hypothesis for the observed changes and one that cannot be rejected at the 95 % level based on our simulations. |
英文关键词 | Monsoon ENSO Correlation Sampling Climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402122200037 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36176 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA; 2.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cash, Benjamin A.,Barimalala, Rondrotiana,Kinter, James L., III,et al. Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon relationship[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48(11). |
APA | Cash, Benjamin A..,Barimalala, Rondrotiana.,Kinter, James L., III.,Altshuler, Eric L..,Fennessy, Michael J..,...&Vitart, Frederic.(2017).Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon relationship.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48(11). |
MLA | Cash, Benjamin A.,et al."Sampling variability and the changing ENSO-monsoon relationship".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48.11(2017). |
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