Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3417-8 |
How well can the observed Arctic sea ice summer retreat and winter advance be represented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2? | |
Collow, Thomas W.1,2; Wang, Wanqiu2; Kumar, Arun2; Zhang, Jinlun3 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The capability of a numerical model to simulate the statistical characteristics of the summer sea ice date of retreat (DOR) and the winter date of advance (DOA) is investigated using sea ice concentration output from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 model (CFSv2). Two model configurations are tested, the operational setting (CFSv2CFSR) which uses initial data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and a modified version (CFSv2PIOMp) which ingests sea ice thickness initialization data from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) and includes physics modifications for a more realistic representation of heat fluxes at the sea ice top and bottom. First, a method to define DOR and DOA is presented. Then, DOR and DOA are determined from the model simulations and observational sea ice concentration from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Means, trends, and detrended standard deviations of DOR and DOA are compared, along with DOR/DOA rates in the Arctic Ocean. It is found that the statistics are generally similar between the model and observations, although some regional biases exist. In addition, regions of new ice retreat in recent years are represented well in CFSv2PIOMp over the Arctic Ocean, in terms of both spatial extent and timing. Overall, CFSv2PIOMp shows a reduction in error throughout the Arctic. Based on results, it is concluded that the model produces a reasonable representation of the climatology and variability statistics of DOR and DOA in most regions. This assessment serves as a prerequisite for future predictability experiments. |
英文关键词 | Arctic sea ice Retreat/advance dates CFSv2 PIOMAS |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000408718200010 |
WOS关键词 | MELT SEASON ; PREDICTION ; THICKNESS ; EXTENT ; OCEAN ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36174 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.INNOVIM LLC, Greenbelt, MD 20770 USA; 2.NOAA, NWS, NCEP Climate Predict Ctr, Ctr Weather & Climate Predict, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.Univ Washington, Polar Sci Ctr, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Collow, Thomas W.,Wang, Wanqiu,Kumar, Arun,et al. How well can the observed Arctic sea ice summer retreat and winter advance be represented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Collow, Thomas W.,Wang, Wanqiu,Kumar, Arun,&Zhang, Jinlun.(2017).How well can the observed Arctic sea ice summer retreat and winter advance be represented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Collow, Thomas W.,et al."How well can the observed Arctic sea ice summer retreat and winter advance be represented in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
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