GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-017-3809-4
On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective
Richter, Ingo1; Doi, Takeshi1; Behera, Swadhin K.1; Keenlyside, Noel2
2018-05-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2018
卷号50页码:3355-3374
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Japan; Norway
英文摘要

The present study examines how mean state biases in sea-surface temperature (SST), surface wind and precipitation affect model skill in reproducing surface wind and precipitation anomalies in the tropics. This is done using theoretical arguments, atmosphere-only experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, and customized sensitivity tests with the SINTEX-F general circulation model. Theoretical arguments suggest that under certain conditions the root mean square error (RMSE) of a variable can be related to its variance and its mean, which indicates a direct link between bias and skill. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), on the other hand, is generally not related to either the mean state or its variance, as several examples document. Multi-model atmosphere-only experiments with prescribed SST warming suggest that both ACC and RMSE of surface wind and precipitation are rather insensitive to warming on the order of 4 K. When SST biases from a free-running control simulation are prescribed in SINTEX-F, the ACC of surface wind is almost unaffected in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic, while that of precipitation decreases noticeably in some regions but also increases in others. The RMSE of both fields shows widespread deterioration. There is a tendency for warm SST biases to increase the signal-to-noise ratio and sometimes ACC as well. The results suggest that, in the context of atmosphere-only simulations, improving SST and precipitation biases does not necessarily improve the skill in reproducing anomalies of surface wind and precipitation.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000429650700013
WOS关键词SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS ; NINO SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; EL-NINO ; ATLANTIC VARIABILITY ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; COUPLED OCEAN ; CLIMATE MODEL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36166
专题气候变化
作者单位1.JAMSTEC, Applicat Lab, Kanazawa Ku, 3173-25 Showa Machi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan;
2.Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway
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Richter, Ingo,Doi, Takeshi,Behera, Swadhin K.,et al. On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:3355-3374.
APA Richter, Ingo,Doi, Takeshi,Behera, Swadhin K.,&Keenlyside, Noel.(2018).On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,3355-3374.
MLA Richter, Ingo,et al."On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):3355-3374.
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