资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Anticyclonic cold surges entering the Gulf of Mexico (Nortes) generate ocean waves that disrupt maritime activities. Norte derived waves are less energetic than the devastating waves from tropical cyclones, but more frequent (similar to 22 events/year) and with larger spatial influence. Despite their importance, few studies characterize Nortes derived waves and assess the effects of climate change on their occurrence. This study presents a method to identify and characterize Nortes with relation to their derived waves in the Gulf of Mexico. We based the identification of Nortes on synoptic measurements of pressure differences between Yucatan and Texas and wind speed at different buoy locations in the Gulf of Mexico. Subsequently, we identified the events in the CFSR reanalysis (present climate) and the CNRM-M5 model for the present climate and the RCP 8.5 scenario. We then forced a wave model to characterize the wave power generated by each event, followed by a principal component analysis and classification by k-means clustering analysis. Five different Nortes types were identified, each one representing a characteristic intensity and area of influence of the Norte driven waves. Finally, we estimated the occurrence of each Norte type for the present and future climates, where the CNRM-M5 results indicate that the high-intensity events will be less frequent in a warming climate, while mild events will become more frequent. The consequences of such changes may provide relief for maritime and coastal operations because of reduced downtimes. This result is particularly relevant for the operational design of coastal and marine facilities.