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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3866-8 |
Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling | |
Nayak, Sridhara1; Dairaku, Koji1; Takayabu, Izuru2; Suzuki-Parker, Asuka3; Ishizaki, Noriko N.1 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:4385-4401 |
文章类型 | Article;Proceedings Paper |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | Recent studies have revealed that an increase in surface air temperature elevates the intensity of extreme precipitation associated with the increase of water vapor in the atmosphere, according to the principle of the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship. In this study, (1) we have verified the dependence of extreme precipitation intensity on temperature (CC relationship) under current climate and (2) investigated the projected changes of the CC relationship over Japan by using multi-model ensemble downscaling experiments of three Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (NHRCM, NRAMS, WRF) forced by JRA25, as well as three General Circulation Models (GCMs) (CCSM4, MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3). Simulated extreme precipitation linked to temperatures from ensemble experiments coincides with observations that place peak temperatures around 19-22 degrees C. Climate scenarios (RCP4.5) of the late twenty-first century suggest a 2 degrees C increase of 2m air temperature, an increase in precipitation intensities above 15mm/day, and a decrease in weaker precipitation intensities of 10-15mm/day. The projected change rate of the mean precipitation intensities per mean change in air temperature over Japan is found to be 2.4%/degrees C. Extreme precipitation intensity increases with temperatures up to 22 degrees C in future climate scenarios, while the peak is 20 degrees C for the current climate. Extreme precipitation intensities at higher percentiles are projected to have larger rates of increase (3-5%/degrees C in the current climate and 4-6%/degrees C in the future climate scenarios). A decrease of precipitation intensity at higher temperatures relates to water vapor availability. An insufficient water vapor supply for saturation at higher temperatures can lead to a decrease in cloud formation and extreme precipitation. |
英文关键词 | Extreme Precipitation Multi-model ensemble downscaling Clausius-Clapeyron relationship Precipitation-temperature relationship |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; ISTP |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451725600028 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE CHANGES ; NUMERICAL-SIMULATION ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; GRID INCREMENT ; WRF MODEL ; CLIMATE ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36159 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Res Inst Earth Sci & Disaster Resilience, Integrated Res Disaster Risk Reduct Div, 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 2.Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 3.Rissho Univ, Tokyo, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nayak, Sridhara,Dairaku, Koji,Takayabu, Izuru,et al. Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:4385-4401. |
APA | Nayak, Sridhara,Dairaku, Koji,Takayabu, Izuru,Suzuki-Parker, Asuka,&Ishizaki, Noriko N..(2018).Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,4385-4401. |
MLA | Nayak, Sridhara,et al."Extreme precipitation linked to temperature over Japan: current evaluation and projected changes with multi-model ensemble downscaling".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):4385-4401. |
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