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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9 |
Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability? | |
Aalbers, Emma E.1,2; Lenderink, Geert1; van Meijgaard, Erik1; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.1,2 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:4745-4766 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands |
英文摘要 | High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system-'noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes-is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11A degrees resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability. |
英文关键词 | Regional climate change Internal variability Precipitation extremes Signal-to-noise Initial-condition RCM-GCM ensemble EURO-CORDEX |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000432597400044 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; TEMPERATURE ; MODELS ; SIMULATIONS ; SCENARIOS ; PATTERN ; UNCERTAINTIES ; EVENTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36118 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, POB 201, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands; 2.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies IVM, Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Aalbers, Emma E.,Lenderink, Geert,van Meijgaard, Erik,et al. Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:4745-4766. |
APA | Aalbers, Emma E.,Lenderink, Geert,van Meijgaard, Erik,&van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M..(2018).Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,4745-4766. |
MLA | Aalbers, Emma E.,et al."Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):4745-4766. |
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