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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4399-5 |
Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads | |
Ren, Diandong1; Dickinson, Robert E.2; Fu, Rong3; Bornman, Janet F.4,5; Guo, Weidong6; Yang, Song7; Leslie, Lance M.8 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:1711-1721 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; USA; Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The increasing importance of aviation activities in modern life coincides with a steady warming climate. However, the effect of climate warming on maximum aircraft carrying capacity or payload has been unclear. Here we clarify this issue using primary atmospheric parameters from 27 fully coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive, utilizing the direct proportionality of near-surface air density (NSAD) to maximum take-off total weight (MTOW). Historical (twentieth century) runs of these climate models showed high credibility in reproducing the reanalysis period (1950-2015) of NSAD. In particular, the model simulated trends in NSAD are highly aligned with the reanalysis values. This reduction in NSAD is a first order global signal, just as is the warming itself, that continues into the future. To examine the statistical significance of the density reduction, a t-test was performed for two 20-year periods 75years apart (2080-2100 vs. 2005-2025), using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emission scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Most continental areas easily passed the test at a P-value of 0.05. These future changes of NSAD will likely have significant economic impacts on the aviation industry. For these two 20-year periods that we examined, the most extreme changes are in the Northern hemisphere in high latitudes, i.e., a 5% decrease in MTOW, or 8.5-19% (aircraft-dependent) reduction in payload. The global average change is about 1%. For the busy North Atlantic Corridor (NAC), the reduction in MTOW is generally greater than 1% and that of payload several times larger. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460902200024 |
WOS关键词 | EXTREME TEMPERATURES ; CYCLE ; AIR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36107 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Curtin Univ, Sch Elect Engn Comp & Math Sci, Perth, WA, Australia; 2.Univ Texas Austin, Jackson Sch Geosci, Austin, TX 78712 USA; 3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, JPL, Pasadena, CA USA; 4.Curtin Univ, Curtin Business Sch, Perth, WA, Australia; 5.Murdoch Univ, Sch Vet & Life Sci, Perth, WA, Australia; 6.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 7.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Climate Change & Nat Disas, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; 8.Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Math & Phys Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ren, Diandong,Dickinson, Robert E.,Fu, Rong,et al. Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:1711-1721. |
APA | Ren, Diandong.,Dickinson, Robert E..,Fu, Rong.,Bornman, Janet F..,Guo, Weidong.,...&Leslie, Lance M..(2019).Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,1711-1721. |
MLA | Ren, Diandong,et al."Impacts of climate warming on maximum aviation payloads".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):1711-1721. |
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