Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3795-6 |
Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China | |
Ying, Kairan1; Frederiksen, Carsten S.2,3; Zhao, Tianbao1; Zheng, Xiaogu1; Xiong, Zhe1; Yi, Xue4; Li, Chunxiang1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:3081-3095 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Australia |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the patterns of interannual variability that arise from the potentially predictable (slow) and unpredictable (intraseasonal) components of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast (NE) China, using observations from a network of 162 meteorological stations for the period 1961-2014. A variance decomposition method is applied to identify the sources of predictability, as well as the sources of prediction uncertainty, for January-February-March (JFM), April-May-June (AMJ), July-August-September (JAS) and October-November-December (OND). The averaged potential predictability (ratio of slow to total variance) of NE China precipitation has the highest value of 0.32 during JAS and lowest value of 0.1 in AMJ. Possible sources of seasonal prediction for the leading predictable precipitation EOF modes come from the SST anomalies in the Japan Sea, as well as the North Atlantic during JFM, the Indian Ocean SST in AMJ, and the eastern tropical Pacific SST in JAS and OND. The prolonged linear trend, which is seen in the principal component time series of the leading predictable mode in JFM and OND, may also serve as a source of predictability. The Polar-Eurasia and Northern Annular Mode atmospheric teleconnection patterns are closely connected with the leading and the second predictable mode of JAS, respectively. The Hadley cell circulation is closely related to the leading predictable mode of OND. The leading/second unpredictable precipitation modes for all these four seasons show a similar monopole/dipole structure, and can be largely attributed to the intraseasonal variabilities of the atmosphere. |
英文关键词 | Predictable signal Unpredictable noise Atlantic SST Indian Ocean SST ENSO Atmospheric teleconnection |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428600200044 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; HEMISPHERE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE ; HUAIHE RIVER VALLEY ; SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; INTERDECADAL VARIATIONS ; ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; WESTERN PACIFIC |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36088 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, CAS Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East A, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Bur Meteorol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 3.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Clayton, Vic, Australia; 4.Reg Climate Ctr Shenyang, Shenyang, Liaoning, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ying, Kairan,Frederiksen, Carsten S.,Zhao, Tianbao,et al. Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:3081-3095. |
APA | Ying, Kairan.,Frederiksen, Carsten S..,Zhao, Tianbao.,Zheng, Xiaogu.,Xiong, Zhe.,...&Li, Chunxiang.(2018).Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,3081-3095. |
MLA | Ying, Kairan,et al."Predictable and unpredictable modes of seasonal mean precipitation over Northeast China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):3081-3095. |
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