Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3638-5 |
Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting | |
Takaya, Yuhei1; Hirahara, Shoji2; Yasuda, Tamaki2; Matsueda, Satoko2; Toyoda, Takahiro1; Fujii, Yosuke1; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki2; Matsukawa, Chihiro2; Ishikawa, Ichiro2; Mori, Hirotoshi2; Nagasawa, Ryoji2; Kubo, Yutaro2; Adachi, Noriyuki3; Yamanaka, Goro1; Kuragano, Tsurane1; Shimpo, Akihiko2; Maeda, Shuhei1; Ose, Tomoaki1 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:751-765 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981-2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region. |
英文关键词 | Seasonal prediction Coupled model ENSO Sea ice Land initialization |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425328700002 |
WOS关键词 | DATA ASSIMILATION ; INITIAL CONDITIONS ; BOUNDARY-LAYER ; TEMPERATURE ; MODEL ; IMPACT ; EXTENT ; SKILL ; PARAMETERIZATION ; ANOMALIES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36010 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Meteorol Res Inst, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan; 2.Japan Meteorol Agcy, Chiyoda Ku, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Tokyo 1008122, Japan; 3.Japan Meteorol Agcy, Okinawa Reg Headquarters, 1-15-15 Higawa, Naha, Okinawa 9008517, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Takaya, Yuhei,Hirahara, Shoji,Yasuda, Tamaki,et al. Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:751-765. |
APA | Takaya, Yuhei.,Hirahara, Shoji.,Yasuda, Tamaki.,Matsueda, Satoko.,Toyoda, Takahiro.,...&Ose, Tomoaki.(2018).Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,751-765. |
MLA | Takaya, Yuhei,et al."Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2): atmosphere-land-ocean-sea ice coupled prediction system for operational seasonal forecasting".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):751-765. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论