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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3673-2 |
Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds | |
Siler, Nicholas1; Po-Chedley, Stephen2; Bretherton, Christopher S.2 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:1209-1220 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo () in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of is found to be strongly predictive () of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of Wm K (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm K, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 +/- 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate. |
英文关键词 | Cloud feedback Equilibrium climate sensitivity Emergent constraint |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425328700028 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; PHYSICS ; BALANCE ; SPREAD ; CMIP5 |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/36007 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, 9500 Gilman Dr,0206, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA; 2.Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Box 351640, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Siler, Nicholas,Po-Chedley, Stephen,Bretherton, Christopher S.. Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:1209-1220. |
APA | Siler, Nicholas,Po-Chedley, Stephen,&Bretherton, Christopher S..(2018).Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,1209-1220. |
MLA | Siler, Nicholas,et al."Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):1209-1220. |
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