Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-4045-7 |
East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system | |
Tian, Baoqiang1,2; Fan, Ke1,2,3; Yang, Hongqing4 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:2793-2805 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the major climate system in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter. In this study, we developed two schemes to improve the forecasting skill of the interannual variability of the EAWM index (EAWMI) using the interannual increment prediction method, also known as the DY method. First, we found that version 2 of the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) showed higher skill in predicting the EAWMI in DY form than not. So, based on the advantage of the DY method, Scheme-I was obtained by adding the EAWMI DY predicted by CFSv2 to the observed EAWMI in the previous year. This scheme showed higher forecasting skill than CFSv2. Specifically, during 1983-2016, the temporal correlation coefficient between the Scheme-I-predicted and observed EAWMI was 0.47, exceeding the 99% significance level, with the root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreased by 12%. The autumn Arctic sea ice and North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are two important external forcing factors for the interannual variability of the EAWM. Therefore, a second (hybrid) prediction scheme, Scheme-II, was also developed. This scheme not only involved the EAWMI DY of CFSv2, but also the sea-ice concentration (SIC) observed the previous autumn in the Laptev and East Siberian seas and the temporal coefficients of the third mode of the North Pacific SST in DY form. We found that a negative SIC anomaly in the preceding autumn over the Laptev and the East Siberian seas could lead to a significant enhancement of the Aleutian low and East Asian westerly jet in the following winter. However, the intensity of the winter Siberian high was mainly affected by the third mode of the North Pacific autumn SST. Scheme-I and Scheme-II also showed higher predictive ability for the EAWMI in negative anomaly years compared to CFSv2. More importantly, the improvement in the prediction skill of the EAWMI by the new schemes, especially for Scheme-II, could enhance the forecasting skill of the winter 2-m air temperature (T-2m) in most parts of China, as well as the intensity of the Aleutian low and Siberian high in winter. The new schemes provide a theoretical basis for improving the prediction of winter climate in China. |
英文关键词 | East Asian winter monsoon Year-to-year increment method Hybrid prediction CFSv2 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000444947600024 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE AIR-TEMPERATURE ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; SEASONAL PREDICTION ; RIVER VALLEY ; CIRCUMGLOBAL TELECONNECTION ; ANTARCTIC OSCILLATION ; ARCTIC-OSCILLATION ; SUMMER MONSOON ; IMPACTS ; YANGTZE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35997 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 4.Yunnan Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Kunming 650091, Yunnan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tian, Baoqiang,Fan, Ke,Yang, Hongqing. East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:2793-2805. |
APA | Tian, Baoqiang,Fan, Ke,&Yang, Hongqing.(2018).East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,2793-2805. |
MLA | Tian, Baoqiang,et al."East Asian winter monsoon forecasting schemes based on the NCEP's climate forecast system".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):2793-2805. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论