Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4256-6 |
Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China | |
Liang, Ping1; Hu, Zeng-Zhen2; Liu, Yunyun3; Yuan, Xing4; Li, Xiaofan5; Jiang, Xingwen6 | |
2019-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 52页码:2217-2233 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | To demonstrate the challenge of summer rainfall prediction and simulation in the eastern China, in this work, we examine the skill of the state-of-the-art climate models, evaluate the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) on forecast skill and estimate the predictability by using perfect model approach. The challenge is further demonstrated by assessing the ability of various reanalyses in capturing the observed summer rainfall variability in the eastern China and by examining the biases in reanalyses and in a climate model. Summer rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) initiated in May from eight seasonal forecast systems have low forecast skill with linear correlation of -0.3 to 0.5 with observations. The low forecast skill is consistent with the low perfect model score (similar to 0.1-0.3) of atmospheric model forced by observed SST, due to the fact that external forcing (SST) may play a secondary role in the summer rainfall variation in the eastern China. This is a common feature for the climate variation over the middle and high latitude lands, where the internal dynamical processes dominate the rainfall variation in the eastern China and lead to low predictability, and external forcing (such as SST) plays a secondary role and is associated with predictable fraction. Even the reanalysis rainfall has some remarkable disagreements with the observation. Statistically, more than 20% of the observed variance is not captured by the mean of six reanalyses. Among the reanalyses, JRA55 stands out as the most reliable one. In addition, the reanalyses and climate model have pronounced biases in simulating the mean rainfall. These defaults mean an additional challenge in predicting the summer rainfall variability in the eastern China that has low predictability in nature. |
英文关键词 | Summer rainfall forecast Eastern China Perfect model skill Internal variability and SST forcing Model and reanalysis biases |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460902200053 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; WESTERN PACIFIC ; PREDICTABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; ANOMALIES ; PATTERNS ; SKILL ; PERFORMANCE ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35992 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Shanghai Meteorol Bur, Shanghai Climate Ctr, Shanghai 200030, Peoples R China; 2.NOAA, NWS, NCEP, Climate Predict Ctr, 5830 Univ Res Court, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 5.Zhejiang Univ, Sch Earth Sci, Hangzhou 310027, Zhejiang, Peoples R China; 6.China Meteorol Adm, Inst Plateau Meteorol, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liang, Ping,Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Liu, Yunyun,et al. Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:2217-2233. |
APA | Liang, Ping,Hu, Zeng-Zhen,Liu, Yunyun,Yuan, Xing,Li, Xiaofan,&Jiang, Xingwen.(2019).Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,2217-2233. |
MLA | Liang, Ping,et al."Challenges in predicting and simulating summer rainfall in the eastern China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):2217-2233. |
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