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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-4032-z |
Ocean-atmosphere processes associated with enhanced Indian monsoon break spells in CFSv2 forecasts | |
Narapusetty, Balachandrudu1,2,3,5; Murtugudde, Raghu4; Wang, Hui2; Kumar, Arun2 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:2623-2636 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This paper analyzes the role of ocean-atmosphere processes associated with break days and their impact on dry-land biases of Indian summer monsoon in Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)'s sub daily and monthly hindcasts, which are produced by initializing the forecast system every 5days in each month from January 1982 to December 2007. Each initialized forecast produces 24 ensemble members and they are characterized by a systematic dry-land bias over central India and have been interlinked with higher break days in majority of the ensemble members. Analyses on 15-45day band-passed summer precipitation anomalies indicate that the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations are very weak in Mar- and Apr-initialized forecasts while they get stronger in May- and Jun-initialized forecasts. The persistent low-level anticyclonic activity in the Findlater jet in the longer lead months (Mar- and Apr-initialized forecasts) is systematically diminished in the summer forecasts that are produced by initializing the forecast system closer to the June-September (JJAS) season (e.g., May- and Jun-initialized forecasts). This low-level negative vorticity bias extends across central India and diminishes with the systematic oceanic mixed layer shoaling in the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Indian Ocean (IO). The deeper ocean mixed layer in BoB and northern IO in conjunction with persistent negative vorticity biases suppresses intraseasonal variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and induces a large number of break days, which lead to the dry-land biases in July and August in the core monsoon zone. CFSv2-produced Pacific sea surface temperatures exert a strong influence on mixed layer depths (MLDs) across the basins in Arabian Sea (AS), BOB and IO unlike in observations. The forecasted extended break spells are systematically and highly correlated with the model produced Nino3 index while no such strong correlation is found between total monsoonal break days and ENSO in the observations. The May- and Jun-initialized CFSv2 forecasts reproduce the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in July-August reliably by reasonably alleviating the ocean-atmosphere coupled biases relative to earlier initializations. |
英文关键词 | CFSv2 sub daily forecasts Extended break events Indian Summer Monsoon dry-land biases Systematic delay in monsoon onset |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000444947600013 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; SUMMER MONSOON ; INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; BOREAL SUMMER ; NCEP CFSV2 ; VERSION 2 ; RAINFALL ; CLIMATE |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35884 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.INNOVIM, College Pk, MD USA; 2.NOAA, NWS, NCEP, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 3.Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; 4.Univ Maryland, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; 5.NOAA, Ctr Weather & Climate Predict, 5830 Univ Res Court, College Pk, MD 20740 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Narapusetty, Balachandrudu,Murtugudde, Raghu,Wang, Hui,et al. Ocean-atmosphere processes associated with enhanced Indian monsoon break spells in CFSv2 forecasts[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:2623-2636. |
APA | Narapusetty, Balachandrudu,Murtugudde, Raghu,Wang, Hui,&Kumar, Arun.(2018).Ocean-atmosphere processes associated with enhanced Indian monsoon break spells in CFSv2 forecasts.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,2623-2636. |
MLA | Narapusetty, Balachandrudu,et al."Ocean-atmosphere processes associated with enhanced Indian monsoon break spells in CFSv2 forecasts".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):2623-2636. |
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