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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3083-x |
Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios | |
Drobinski, Philippe1,2; Da Silva, Nicolas1,2; Panthou, Geremy3,4; Bastin, Sophie5; Muller, Caroline2,6; Ahrens, Bodo7; Borga, Marco8; Conte, Dario9; Fosser, Giorgia10; Giorgi, Filippo11; Guttler, Ivan12; Kotroni, Vassiliki13; Li, Laurent14,15; Morin, Efrat16; Onol, Baris17; Quintana-Segui, Pere18; Romera, Raquel19; Torma, Csaba Zsolt11 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51期号:3页码:1237-1257 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Germany; Italy; Croatia; Greece; Israel; Turkey; Spain |
英文摘要 | In this study we investigate the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean region by assessing against observations the present day and future regional climate simulations performed in the frame of the HyMeX and MED-CORDEX programs. Over the 1979-2008 period, despite differences in quantitative precipitation simulation across the various models, the change in precipitation extremes with respect to temperature is robust and consistent. The spatial variability of the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship displays a hook shape across the Mediterranean, with negative slope at high temperatures and a slope following Clausius-Clapeyron (CC)-scaling at low temperatures. The temperature at which the slope of the temperature-precipitation extreme relation sharply changes (or temperature break), ranges from about 20 A degrees C in the western Mediterranean to < 10 A degrees C in Greece. In addition, this slope is always negative in the arid regions of the Mediterranean. The scaling of the simulated precipitation extremes is insensitive to ocean-atmosphere coupling, while it depends very weakly on the resolution at high temperatures for short precipitation accumulation times. In future climate scenario simulations covering the 2070-2100 period, the temperature break shifts to higher temperatures by a value which is on average the mean regional temperature change due to global warming. The slope of the simulated future temperature-precipitation extremes relationship is close to CC-scaling at temperatures below the temperature break, while at high temperatures, the negative slope is close, but somewhat flatter or steeper, than in the current climate depending on the model. Overall, models predict more intense precipitation extremes in the future. Adjusting the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the present climate using the CC law and the temperature shift in the future allows the recovery of the temperature-precipitation extremes relationship in the future climate. This implies negligible regional changes of relative humidity in the future despite the large warming and drying over the Mediterranean. This suggests that the Mediterranean Sea is the primary source of moisture which counteracts the drying and warming impacts on relative humidity in parts of the Mediterranean region. |
英文关键词 | Precipitation extremes Clausius-Clapeyron scaling Regional climate Europe Mediterranean HyMeX MED-CORDEX |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439141800026 |
WOS关键词 | HIGH-RESOLUTION ; SIMPLE PARAMETERIZATION ; HEAVY PRECIPITATION ; FUTURE CHANGES ; MODEL ; WATER ; SCHEME ; SEA ; SIMULATIONS ; CIRCULATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35858 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Paris Saclay, CNRS, IPSL, LMD, Palaiseau, France; 2.Univ Paris Saclay, Ecole Polytech, Palaiseau, France; 3.Univ Paris Saclay, CNRS, IPSL, LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 4.Univ Paris Saclay, CEA, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 5.Sorbonne Univ, Univ Paris Saclay, UPMC Univ Paris 06, LATMOS,IPSL,UVSQ,CNRS,INSU, Guyancourt, France; 6.Univ Paris Saclay, CNRS, LadHyX, Palaiseau, France; 7.Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Atmospher & Environm Sci, Frankfurt, Germany; 8.Univ Padua, Dept Land & Agroforest Environm, Legnaro, Italy; 9.CMCC, Lecce, Italy; 10.Meteo France, CNRM, CNRS, GAME, Toulouse, France; 11.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy; 12.Meteorol & Hydrol Serv Croatia DHMZ, Zagreb, Croatia; 13.Natl Observ Athens, Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev, Athens, Greece; 14.Sorbonne Univ, CNRS, IPSL, LMD, Paris, France; 15.Sorbonne Univ, UPMC Univ Paris 06, Paris, France; 16.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Geog, Jerusalem, Israel; 17.Istanbul Tech Univ, Aeronaut & Astronaut Fac, Dept Meteorol, Istanbul, Turkey; 18.Univ Ramon LLull, CSIC, Observ Ebre, Tarragona, Spain; 19.Univ Castilla La Mancha, Inst Environm Sci, Toledo, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Drobinski, Philippe,Da Silva, Nicolas,Panthou, Geremy,et al. Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51(3):1237-1257. |
APA | Drobinski, Philippe.,Da Silva, Nicolas.,Panthou, Geremy.,Bastin, Sophie.,Muller, Caroline.,...&Torma, Csaba Zsolt.(2018).Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51(3),1237-1257. |
MLA | Drobinski, Philippe,et al."Scaling precipitation extremes with temperature in the Mediterranean: past climate assessment and projection in anthropogenic scenarios".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51.3(2018):1237-1257. |
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