Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-018-4072-z |
Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779-2015, inferred from tree rings | |
Panyushkina, Irina P.1; Meko, D. M.1; Macklin, M. G.2,3,4; Toonen, W. H. J.5; Mukhamadiev, N. S.6; Konovalov, V. G.7; Ashikbaev, N. Z.6; Sagitov, A. O.6 | |
2018-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:3161-3177 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; England; New Zealand; Wales; Kazakhstan; Russia |
英文摘要 | Long highly-resolved proxies for runoff are in high demand for hydrological forecasts and water management in arid Central Asia. An accurate (R-2=0.53) reconstruction of October-September discharge of the Ili River in Kazakhstan, 1779-2015, is developed from moisture-sensitive tree rings of spruce sampled in the Tian Shan Mountains. The fivefold extension of the gauged discharge record represents the variability of runoff in the Lake Balkhash Basin for the last 235years. The reconstruction shows a 40year long interval of low discharge preceded a recent high peak in the first decade of the 2000s followed by a decline to more recent levels of discharge not seen since the start of the gauged record. Most reconstructed flow extremes (+/- 2 sigma) occur outside the instrumental record (1936-2015) and predate the start of large dam construction (1969). Decadal variability of the Ili discharge corresponds well with hydrological records of other Eurasian internal drainages modeled with tree rings. Spectral analysis identifies variance peaks (highest near 42year) consistent with main hemispheric oscillations of the Eurasian climatic system. Seasonal comparison of the Ili discharge with sea-level-pressure and geopotential height data suggests periods of high flow likely result from the increased contribution of snow to runoff associated with the interaction of Arctic air circulation with the Siberian High-Pressure System and North Atlantic Oscillation. |
英文关键词 | Climate change impacts Water resources Ili River runoff Discharge proxy Dendrochronology Picea schrenkiana Tian Shan Mountains Kazakhstan |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000444947600045 |
WOS关键词 | TIEN-SHAN MOUNTAINS ; TIME-SERIES ; WINTER MONSOON ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER ; RECONSTRUCTION ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; STREAMFLOW ; INDEX |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35849 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Arizona, Tree Ring Res Lab, 1215 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 2.Univ Lincoln, Sch Geog, Lincoln LN6 7TS, England; 3.Univ Lincoln, Lincoln Ctr Water & Planetary Hlth, Lincoln LN6 7TS, England; 4.Massey Univ, Innovat River Solut, Inst Agr & Environm, Private Bag 11 222, Palmerston North 4222, New Zealand; 5.Aberystwyth Univ, Dept Geog & Earth Sci, Llandinam Bldg,Penglais Campus, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, Dyfed, Wales; 6.ZH Zhiembaev Res Inst Plant Protect & Quarantine, Kazybek Bi 1, Alma Ata 050070, Kazakhstan; 7.RAN Inst Geog, Staromonetnyi Pereulok 29, Moscow 119017, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Panyushkina, Irina P.,Meko, D. M.,Macklin, M. G.,et al. Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779-2015, inferred from tree rings[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:3161-3177. |
APA | Panyushkina, Irina P..,Meko, D. M..,Macklin, M. G..,Toonen, W. H. J..,Mukhamadiev, N. S..,...&Sagitov, A. O..(2018).Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779-2015, inferred from tree rings.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,3161-3177. |
MLA | Panyushkina, Irina P.,et al."Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779-2015, inferred from tree rings".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):3161-3177. |
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