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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3921-5 |
The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus | |
Amaya, Dillon J.; Siler, Nicholas; Xie, Shang-Ping; Miller, Arthur J. | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:305-319 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells and the edge of the tropics show a robust poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we use a Joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of tropical width variability: (1) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (2) an internal mode, which we identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is essentially indistinguishable from the El Nio Southern Oscillation. Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere, with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of tropical width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations. |
英文关键词 | Hadley Cell expansion Global warming hiatus El Nino Southern Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation Internal variability Global climate model |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435522000018 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL BELT ; BLACK CARBON ; VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC ; CIRCULATION ; REANALYSES ; PRECIPITATION ; ATTRIBUTION ; MECHANISMS ; TRENDS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35848 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, 9500 Gilman Dr 0206, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Amaya, Dillon J.,Siler, Nicholas,Xie, Shang-Ping,et al. The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:305-319. |
APA | Amaya, Dillon J.,Siler, Nicholas,Xie, Shang-Ping,&Miller, Arthur J..(2018).The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,305-319. |
MLA | Amaya, Dillon J.,et al."The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):305-319. |
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