资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The persistence of the Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) from March to August is important for the prediction of Asian summer monsoon. Based on the observational data and the pre-industrial control run outputs of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), the IOBM is categorized into three types: the first type can persist until August; the second type transforms from the positive (negative) IOBM into the negative (positive) Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM), accompanied by the El Nino-to-La Nina (La Nina-to-El Nino) transition in the boreal summer; the third type transforms from the positive (negative) IOBM into the positive (negative) IODM in early summer. It is discovered that aside from the influence of anomalous Walker Circulation resulted from the phase transition of ENSO, the persistence of Australia high anomaly (AHA) over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the west of Australia from March to May is favorable for the positive (negative) IOBM transformation into the positive (negative) IODM in the boreal summer. The stronger equatorially asymmetric sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the boreal spring are the main mechanism for the persistence of IOBM, because the asymmetric atmospheric responses to the stronger equatorially asymmetric SSTAs in the TIO confine the AHA to the east of Australia from May to August. This result indicates a possibility of predicting summer atmospheric circulation based on the equatorial symmetry of SSTAs in the TIO in spring.