GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4225-0
Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models
Zaninelli, Pablo G.1,2,3,4; Menendez, Claudio G.1,2,3; Falco, Magdalena1,2,3; Lopez-Franca, Noelia1,2,3; Carril, Andrea F.1,2,3
2019
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:819-830
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Argentina
英文摘要

Changes between two time slices (1961-1990 and 2071-2100) in hydroclimatological conditions for South America have been examined using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual mean precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E) and potential evapotranspiration (E-P) are jointly considered through the balances of land water and energy. Drying or wetting conditions, associated with changes in land water availability and atmospheric demand, are analysed in the Budyko space. The water supply limit (E limited by P) is exceeded at about 2% of the grid points, while the energy limit to evapotranspiration (E=E-P) is overall valid. Most of the continent, except for the southeast and some coastal areas, presents a shift toward drier conditions related to a decrease in water availability (the evaporation rate E/P increases) and, mostly over much of Brazil, to an increase in the aridity index (? = E-P/P). These changes suggest less humid conditions with decreasing surface runoff over Amazonia and the Brazilian Highlands. In contrast, Argentina and the coasts of Ecuador and Peru are characterized by a tendency toward wetter conditions associated with an increase of water availability and a decrease of aridity index, primarily due to P increasing faster than both E and E-P. This trend towards wetter soil conditions suggest that the chances of having larger periods of flooding and enhanced river discharges would increase over parts of southeastern South America. Interannual variability increases with ? (for a given time slice) and with climate change (for a given aridity regimen). There are opposite interannual variability responses to the cliamte change in Argentina and Brazil by which the variability increases over the Brazilian Highlands and decreases in central-eastern Argentina.


英文关键词Hydroclimate of South America Climate change Budyko space Aridity index Regional climate models
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000460619200047
WOS关键词LA PLATA BASIN ; COUPLED MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; RESOLUTION ; FRAMEWORK ; ARIDITY ; TRENDS ; CYCLE
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35801
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina;
2.UBA, CONICET, CIMA, Pabellon 2,Piso 2,Ciudad Univ, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina;
3.UBA, CONICET, IFAECI, CNRS,UMI3351, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina;
4.Univ Nacl La Plata, Fac Ciencias Astron & Geofis, La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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GB/T 7714
Zaninelli, Pablo G.,Menendez, Claudio G.,Falco, Magdalena,et al. Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:819-830.
APA Zaninelli, Pablo G.,Menendez, Claudio G.,Falco, Magdalena,Lopez-Franca, Noelia,&Carril, Andrea F..(2019).Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,819-830.
MLA Zaninelli, Pablo G.,et al."Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):819-830.
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