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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3307-0 |
Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability | |
Hall, Richard J.1; Jones, Julie M.1; Hanna, Edward1; Scaife, Adam A.2; Erdelyi, Robert3,4 | |
2017-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 48期号:11 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Hungary |
英文摘要 | The variability of the North Atlantic polar front jet stream is crucial in determining summer weather around the North Atlantic basin. Recent extreme summers in western Europe and North America have highlighted the need for greater understanding of this variability, in order to aid seasonal forecasting and mitigate societal, environmental and economic impacts. Here we find that simple linear regression and composite models based on a few predictable factors are able to explain up to 35 % of summertime jet stream speed and latitude variability from 1955 onwards. Sea surface temperature forcings impact predominantly on jet speed, whereas solar and cryospheric forcings appear to influence jet latitude. The cryospheric associations come from the previous autumn, suggesting the survival of an ice-induced signal through the winter season, whereas solar influences lead jet variability by a few years. Regression models covering the earlier part of the twentieth century are much less effective, presumably due to decreased availability of data, and increased uncertainty in observational reanalyses. Wavelet coherence analysis identifies that associations fluctuate over the study period but it is not clear whether this is just internal variability or genuine non-stationarity. Finally we identify areas for future research. |
英文关键词 | Polar front jet Predictors North Atlantic Predictability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000402122200025 |
WOS关键词 | ARCTIC SEA-ICE ; EUROPEAN CLIMATE ; OSCILLATION ; REANALYSIS ; CIRCULATION ; ATMOSPHERE ; WEATHER ; AMPLIFICATION ; PERSISTENCE ; ANOMALIES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35792 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Winter St, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England; 2.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Univ Sheffield, Sch Math & Stat, Solar Phys & Space Plasma Res Ctr, Sheffield, S Yorkshire, England; 4.Hungarian Acad Sci, Debrecen Heliophys Observ, Res Ctr Astron & Earth Sci, POB 30, H-4010 Debrecen, Hungary |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hall, Richard J.,Jones, Julie M.,Hanna, Edward,et al. Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48(11). |
APA | Hall, Richard J.,Jones, Julie M.,Hanna, Edward,Scaife, Adam A.,&Erdelyi, Robert.(2017).Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48(11). |
MLA | Hall, Richard J.,et al."Drivers and potential predictability of summer time North Atlantic polar front jet variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48.11(2017). |
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