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DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3483-y
Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST
Lian, Tao
2017-10-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号49
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

In most parts of the global ocean, the magnitude of the long-term linear trend in sea surface temperature (SST) is much smaller than the amplitude of multi-scale internal variation. One can thus use a specific period in a much longer record to arbitrarily determine the sign of long-term trend, which is statistically significant, in regional SST. This could lead to a controversial conclusion on how global SST responded to the anthropogenic forcing in the recent history. In this study, the uncertainty in the linear trend due to multi-scale internal variation is theoretically investigated. It is found that the "estimated" trend will not change its sign only when its magnitude is greater than a theoretical threshold that scales the influence from the multi-scale internal variation. Otherwise, the sign of the "estimated" trend may depend on the period used. The new criterion is found to be superior over the existing methods when the de-trended time series is dominated by the oscillatory term. Applying this new criterion to a global SST reconstruction from 1881 to 2013 reveals that the influences from multi-scale internal variation on the sign of "estimated" linear trend cannot be excluded in most parts of the Pacific, the southern Indian Ocean and the northern Atlantic; therefore, the warming or/and cooling trends found in these regions cannot be interpreted as the consequences of anthropogenic forcing. It's also suggested that the recent hiatus can be explained by combined uncertainty from internal variations at the interannual and decadal time scales.


英文关键词Ordinary least-square Linear trend Internal variation Global warming Hiatus
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000410803300039
WOS关键词NORTH-ATLANTIC ; PACIFIC ; OSCILLATION ; HIATUS ; OCEAN
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:8[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35781
专题气候变化
作者单位Second Inst Oceanog, State Key Lab Satellite Ocean Environm Dynam, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lian, Tao. Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49.
APA Lian, Tao.(2017).Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49.
MLA Lian, Tao."Uncertainty in detecting trend: a new criterion and its applications to global SST".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017).
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