Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3654-5 |
Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model | |
Zhang, Xinchang1; Zhong, Shanshan1; Wu, Zhiwei2; Li, Yun3 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:4585-4600 |
文章类型 | Article;Proceedings Paper |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Australia |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the typhoon genesis frequency (TGF) in the dominant season (July to October) in Western North Pacific (WNP) using observed data in 1965-2015. Of particular interest is the predictability of the TGF and associated preseason sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific. It is found that, the TGF is positively related to a tri-polar pattern of April SST anomalies in North Pacific (NPTApr), while it is negatively related to SST anomalies over the Coral Sea (CSSTApr) off east coast of Australia. The NPTApr leads to large anomalous cyclonic circulation over North Pacific. The anomalous southwesterly weakens the northeast trade wind, decreases evaporation, and induces warm water in central tropical North Pacific. As such, the warming effect amplifies the temperature gradient in central tropical North Pacific, which in turn maintains the cyclonic wind anomaly in the west tropical Pacific, which favors the typhoon genesis in WNP. In the South Pacific, the CSSTApr supports the typhoon formation over the WNP by (a) strengthening the cross-equatorial flows and enhancing the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone; (b) weakening southeast and northeast trade wind, and keeping continuous warming in the center of tropical Pacific. The influence of both NPTApr and CSSTApr can persistently affect the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific and induce conditions favorable for the typhoon genesis in the typhoon season. A Poisson regression model using NPTApr and CSSTApr is developed to predict the TGF and a promising skill is achieved. |
英文关键词 | Typhoon genesis frequency Western North Pacific Prediction Poisson regression |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; ISTP |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451725600040 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY ; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; FOOTPRINTING MECHANISM ; VARIABILITY ; MODULATION ; CHINA ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35759 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster,Minist Educ KLME, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change ILCEC, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China; 3.Western Power, Business Intelligence & Data Analyt, Perth, WA 6000, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Xinchang,Zhong, Shanshan,Wu, Zhiwei,et al. Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:4585-4600. |
APA | Zhang, Xinchang,Zhong, Shanshan,Wu, Zhiwei,&Li, Yun.(2018).Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,4585-4600. |
MLA | Zhang, Xinchang,et al."Seasonal prediction of the typhoon genesis frequency over the Western North Pacific with a Poisson regression model".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):4585-4600. |
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