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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3859-7 |
Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability | |
Zheng, Xiao-Tong1,2,3,5; Hui, Chang1,2,3; Yeh, Sang-Wook4 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:4019-4035 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; South Korea |
英文摘要 | El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of variability in the coupled ocean-atmospheric system. Future projections of ENSO change under global warming are highly uncertain among models. In this study, the effect of internal variability on ENSO amplitude change in future climate projections is investigated based on a 40-member ensemble from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) project. A large uncertainty is identified among ensemble members due to internal variability. The inter-member diversity is associated with a zonal dipole pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) change in the mean along the equator, which is similar to the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) in the unforced control simulation. The uncertainty in CESM-LE is comparable in magnitude to that among models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), suggesting the contribution of internal variability to the intermodel uncertainty in ENSO amplitude change. However, the causations between changes in ENSO amplitude and the mean state are distinct between CESM-LE and CMIP5 ensemble. The CESM-LE results indicate that a large ensemble of similar to 15 members is needed to separate the relative contributions to ENSO amplitude change over the twenty-first century between forced response and internal variability. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000432597400006 |
WOS关键词 | PACIFIC DECADAL VARIABILITY ; INDO-WESTERN PACIFIC ; EL-NINO ; MODULATION ; CLIMATE ; OCEAN ; MODELS ; CMIP5 ; TELECONNECTIONS ; PRECIPITATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35730 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, CIMST, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 3.Ocean Univ China, Key Lab Ocean Atmosphere Interact & Climate Univ, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 4.Hanyang Univ, Dept Marine Sci & Convergent Technol, Ansan, South Korea; 5.Ocean Univ China, Coll Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zheng, Xiao-Tong,Hui, Chang,Yeh, Sang-Wook. Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:4019-4035. |
APA | Zheng, Xiao-Tong,Hui, Chang,&Yeh, Sang-Wook.(2018).Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,4019-4035. |
MLA | Zheng, Xiao-Tong,et al."Response of ENSO amplitude to global warming in CESM large ensemble: uncertainty due to internal variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):4019-4035. |
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