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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3502-z |
The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections | |
Deser, Clara; Hurrell, James W.; Phillips, Adam S. | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This study highlights the expected range of projected winter air temperature and precipitation trends over the next 30-50 years due to unpredictable fluctuations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) superimposed upon forced anthropogenic climate change. The findings are based on a 40-member initial-condition ensemble of simulations covering the period 1920-2100 conducted with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) at 1A degrees spatial resolution. The magnitude (and in some regions, even the sign) of the projected temperature and precipitation trends over Europe, Russia and parts of the Middle East vary considerably across the ensemble depending on the evolution of the NAO in each individual member. Thus, internal variability of the NAO imparts substantial uncertainty to future changes in regional climate over the coming decades. To validate the model results, we apply a simple scaling approach that relates the margin-of-error on a trend to the statistics of the interannual variability. In this way, we can obtain the expected range of projected climate trends using the interannual statistics of the observed NAO record in combination with the model's radiatively-forced response (given by the ensemble-mean of the 40 simulations). The results of this observationally-based estimate are similar to those obtained directly from the CESM ensemble, attesting to the fidelity of the model's representation of the NAO and the utility of this approach. Finally, we note that the interannual statistics of the NAO and associated surface climate impacts are subject to uncertainty due to sampling fluctuations, even when based on a century of data. |
英文关键词 | North Atlantic Oscillation Climate projections Climate prediction Climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000414153800012 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE LOSS ; INTERNAL VARIABILITY ; TROPICAL ORIGINS ; PART II ; TEMPERATURE ; TRENDS ; CIRCULATION ; PRECIPITATION ; MECHANISMS ; PATTERNS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35705 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Deser, Clara,Hurrell, James W.,Phillips, Adam S.. The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Deser, Clara,Hurrell, James W.,&Phillips, Adam S..(2017).The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Deser, Clara,et al."The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in European climate projections".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
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