Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3572-6 |
Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions | |
Hunt, B. G.; Dix, M. R. | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
![]() |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Rainfall prediction for a year in advance would be immensely valuable for numerous activities, if it were achievable. It is shown that in any one year, the chances of making a correct prediction is about 50%, but there is no way a priori of determining the correctness of such a prediction. This results primarily because annual mean time series of rainfall over most of the globe consists of white noise, i.e. they are random/stochastic. This outcome is shown to exist for both observations and output from a coupled global climatic model, based on autoregressive analysis. The major forcing mechanism for rainfall anomalies over much of the global is the El Nio/Southern Oscillation, but it explains only a modest part of the variance in the rainfall. Much of the remaining variance is attributed to internal climatic variability, and it is shown that this imposes a major limitation on rainfall predictability. |
英文关键词 | Rainfall predictability Stochastic influences Coupled climatic model 5000-yearsimulation |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000415579000033 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY ; CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; NOISE ; GCM ; ENSEMBLE ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35704 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere Flagship, PMB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hunt, B. G.,Dix, M. R.. Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Hunt, B. G.,&Dix, M. R..(2017).Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Hunt, B. G.,et al."Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[Hunt, B. G.]的文章 |
[Dix, M. R.]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[Hunt, B. G.]的文章 |
[Dix, M. R.]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[Hunt, B. G.]的文章 |
[Dix, M. R.]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论