GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-017-3572-6
Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions
Hunt, B. G.; Dix, M. R.
2017-12-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号49
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

Rainfall prediction for a year in advance would be immensely valuable for numerous activities, if it were achievable. It is shown that in any one year, the chances of making a correct prediction is about 50%, but there is no way a priori of determining the correctness of such a prediction. This results primarily because annual mean time series of rainfall over most of the globe consists of white noise, i.e. they are random/stochastic. This outcome is shown to exist for both observations and output from a coupled global climatic model, based on autoregressive analysis. The major forcing mechanism for rainfall anomalies over much of the global is the El Nio/Southern Oscillation, but it explains only a modest part of the variance in the rainfall. Much of the remaining variance is attributed to internal climatic variability, and it is shown that this imposes a major limitation on rainfall predictability.


英文关键词Rainfall predictability Stochastic influences Coupled climatic model 5000-yearsimulation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000415579000033
WOS关键词NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION ; INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY ; CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS ; NOISE ; GCM ; ENSEMBLE ; MODEL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35704
专题气候变化
作者单位CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere Flagship, PMB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hunt, B. G.,Dix, M. R.. Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49.
APA Hunt, B. G.,&Dix, M. R..(2017).Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49.
MLA Hunt, B. G.,et al."Stochastic implications for long-range rainfall predictions".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017).
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