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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3767-x |
Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1 | |
Day, Jonathan J.1; Holland, Marika M.2; Hodges, Kevin I.3 | |
2018-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:3885-3903 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; USA |
英文摘要 | The dramatic warming of the Arctic over the last three decades has reduced both the thickness and extent of sea ice, opening opportunities for business in diverse sectors and increasing human exposure to meteorological hazards in the Arctic. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in extreme cyclones in the region, therefore increasing this hazard. In this study, we investigate the response of Arctic synoptic scale cyclones to climate change in a large initial value ensemble of future climate projections with the CESM1-CAM5 climate model (CESM-LE). We find that the response of Arctic cyclones in these simulations varies with season, with significant reductions in cyclone dynamic intensity across the Arctic basin in winter, but with contrasting increases in summer intensity within the region known as the Arctic Ocean cyclone maximum. There is also a significant reduction in winter cyclogenesis events within the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian sea region. We conclude that these differences in the response of cyclone intensity and cyclogenesis, with season, appear to be closely linked to changes in surface temperature gradients in the high latitudes, with Arctic poleward temperature gradients increasing in summer, but decreasing in winter. |
英文关键词 | Arctic cyclones Extreme weather Polar climate Climate change Storm risk |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429650700044 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-ICE ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; STORM-TRACKS ; SUMMER CYCLONE ; DYNAMICAL CORE ; CMIP5 ; REANALYSIS ; MODELS ; IMPACT ; AMPLIFICATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35697 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, Berks, England; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 3.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Day, Jonathan J.,Holland, Marika M.,Hodges, Kevin I.. Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:3885-3903. |
APA | Day, Jonathan J.,Holland, Marika M.,&Hodges, Kevin I..(2018).Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,3885-3903. |
MLA | Day, Jonathan J.,et al."Seasonal differences in the response of Arctic cyclones to climate change in CESM1".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):3885-3903. |
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