GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4273-5
Predictability of the European heat and cold waves
Lavaysse, Christophe1,2; Naumann, Gustavo1; Alfieri, Lorenzo1; Salamon, Peter1; Vogt, Juergen1
2019-02-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:2481-2495
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Italy; France
英文摘要

Heat and cold waves may have considerable human and economic impacts in Europe. Recent events, like the heat waves observed in France in 2003 and Russia in 2010, illustrated the major consequences to be expected. Reliable Early Warning Systems for extreme temperatures would, therefore, be of high value for decision makers. However, they require a clear definition and robust forecasts of these events. This study analyzes the predictability of heat and cold waves over Europe, defined as at least three consecutive days of Tmin and Tmax above the quantile Q90 (under Q10), using the extended ensemble system of ECMWF. The results show significant predictability for events within a 2-week lead time, but with a strong decrease of the predictability during the first week of forecasts (from 80 to 40% of observed events correctly forecasted). The scores show a higher predictive skill for the cold waves (in winter) than for the heat waves (in summer). The uncertainties and the sensitivities of the predictability are discussed on the basis of tests conducted with different spatial and temporal resolutions. Results demonstrate the negligible effect of the temporal resolution (very few errors due to bad timing of the forecasts), and a better predictability of large-scale events. The onset and the end of the waves are slightly less predictable with an average of about 35% (30%) of observed heat (cold) waves onsets or ends correctly forecasted with a 5-day lead time. Finally, the forecasted intensities show a correlation of about 0.65 with those observed, revealing the challenge to predict this important characteristic.


英文关键词Predictability Heat waves Cold waves Ensemble forecasts Validation
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000460902200069
WOS关键词WEATHER PLAN ; MORTALITY ; HEALTH ; SYSTEM ; IMPACT ; TEMPERATURE ; FORECAST ; ENGLAND ; DEATHS
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:24[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35648
专题气候变化
作者单位1.European Commiss, JRC, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy;
2.Univ Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, G INP, IRD,IGE, F-38000 Grenoble, France
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lavaysse, Christophe,Naumann, Gustavo,Alfieri, Lorenzo,et al. Predictability of the European heat and cold waves[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:2481-2495.
APA Lavaysse, Christophe,Naumann, Gustavo,Alfieri, Lorenzo,Salamon, Peter,&Vogt, Juergen.(2019).Predictability of the European heat and cold waves.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,2481-2495.
MLA Lavaysse, Christophe,et al."Predictability of the European heat and cold waves".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):2481-2495.
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