GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4260-x
Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections
Watterson, I. G.
2019-02-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号52页码:2451-2466
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Australia
英文摘要

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other variables simulated by 40 current climate models for the 21st century are approximated as the product of the global mean warming and a spatial pattern of scaled changes. These fields of standardized change contain consistent features of simulated change, such as larger warming over land and increased high-latitude precipitation. However, they also differ across the ensemble, with standard deviations exceeding 0.2 for temperature over most continents, and 6% per degree for tropical precipitation. These variations are found to correlate, often strongly, with indices based on those of modes of interannual variability. Annular mode indices correlate, across the 40 models, with regional pressure changes and seasonal rainfall changes, particularly in South America and Europe. Equatorial ocean warming rates link to widespread anomalies, similarly to ENSO. A Pacific-Indian Dipole (PID) index representing the gradient in warming across the maritime continent is correlated with Australian rainfall with coefficient r of -0.8. The component of equatorial warming orthogonal to this index, denoted EQN, has strong links to temperature and rainfall in Africa and the Americas. It is proposed that these indices and their associated patterns might be termed modes of climate change. This is supported by an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions for the ensemble of standardized fields. Can such indices be used to help constrain projections? The relative similarity of the PID and EQN values of change, from models that have more skilful simulation of the present climate tropical pressure fields, provides a basis for this.


英文关键词Climate change CMIP5 Annular modes ENSO Rainfall
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000460902200067
WOS关键词LAYER OCEAN VERSIONS ; ANNULAR MODE ; CSIRO MK3.5 ; VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION ; SENSITIVITY ; SUMMER ; FULL
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35645
专题气候变化
作者单位CSIRO, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Watterson, I. G.. Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52:2451-2466.
APA Watterson, I. G..(2019).Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52,2451-2466.
MLA Watterson, I. G.."Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52(2019):2451-2466.
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