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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-4017-y |
Attractor radius and global attractor radius and their application to the quantification of predictability limits | |
Li, Jianping1,2,3; Feng, Jie4; Ding, Ruiqiang5,6 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:2359-2374 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Quantifying the predictability limits of chaotic systems and their forecast models is an important issue with both theoretical and practical significance. This paper introduces three invariant statistical properties of attractors, namely the attractor radius, global attractor radius (GAR), and the global average distance between two attractors, to define the geometric characteristics and average behavior of a chaotic system and its error growth. The GAR is times the attractor radius. These invariant quantities are applied to quantitatively measure the global and local predictability limits (both have practical and potential predictability limits, which correspond to the attractor radius and GAR, respectively) of both global ensemble average forecasts and one single initial state, respectively. Both the attractor radius and GAR are intrinsic properties of a chaotic system and independent of the forecast model and model errors, and thus provide more accurate, objective metrics to assess the global and local predictability limits of forecast models compared with the traditional error saturation or asymptotic value (AV). Both the Lorenz63 model and operational forecast data are used to demonstrate the theoretical aspects of these geometric characteristics and evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of their application to predictability analysis. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442433200043 |
WOS关键词 | NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION ; TEMPORAL-SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION ; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ; CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY ; STRANGE ATTRACTORS ; CHAOTIC SYSTEMS ; ERROR ; ATMOSPHERE ; DIMENSION ; EQUATIONS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35601 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci GCESS, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 3.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Reg Oceanog & Numer Modeling, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China; 4.Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 6.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Jianping,Feng, Jie,Ding, Ruiqiang. Attractor radius and global attractor radius and their application to the quantification of predictability limits[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:2359-2374. |
APA | Li, Jianping,Feng, Jie,&Ding, Ruiqiang.(2018).Attractor radius and global attractor radius and their application to the quantification of predictability limits.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,2359-2374. |
MLA | Li, Jianping,et al."Attractor radius and global attractor radius and their application to the quantification of predictability limits".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):2359-2374. |
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