GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3177-5
Data-driven prediction strategies for low-frequency patterns of North Pacific climate variability
Comeau, Darin; Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios; Majda, Andrew J.
2017-03-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2017
卷号48
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The North Pacific exhibits patterns of low-frequency variability on the intra-annual to decadal time scales, which manifest themselves in both model data and the observational record, and prediction of such low-frequency modes of variability is of great interest to the community. While parametric models, such as stationary and non-stationary autoregressive models, possibly including external factors, may perform well in a data-fitting setting, they may perform poorly in a prediction setting. Ensemble analog forecasting, which relies on the historical record to provide estimates of the future based on past trajectories of those states similar to the initial state of interest, provides a promising, nonparametric approach to forecasting that makes no assumptions on the underlying dynamics or its statistics. We apply such forecasting to low-frequency modes of variability for the North Pacific sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration fields extracted through Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis, an algorithm which produces clean time-scale separation from data without pre-filtering. We find such methods may outperform parametric methods and simple persistence with increased predictive skill, and are more skillful when initialized in an active phase, rather than a quiescent phase. We also apply these methods to the predict integrated sea ice extent anomalies in the North Pacific from both models and observations, and find an increase of predictive skill over the persistence forecast by about 2 months.


英文关键词North Pacific climate variability PDO Predictability Dimension reduction
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000395060900027
WOS关键词ARCTIC SEA-ICE ; LAPLACIAN SPECTRAL-ANALYSIS ; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; TIME-SERIES ; SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; REGRESSION-MODELS ; MERIDIONAL MODES ; REGIME SHIFTS ; PREDICTABILITY ; IDENTIFICATION
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35557
专题气候变化
作者单位NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, Ctr Atmosphere Ocean Sci, New York, NY 10003 USA
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GB/T 7714
Comeau, Darin,Zhao, Zhizhen,Giannakis, Dimitrios,et al. Data-driven prediction strategies for low-frequency patterns of North Pacific climate variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48.
APA Comeau, Darin,Zhao, Zhizhen,Giannakis, Dimitrios,&Majda, Andrew J..(2017).Data-driven prediction strategies for low-frequency patterns of North Pacific climate variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48.
MLA Comeau, Darin,et al."Data-driven prediction strategies for low-frequency patterns of North Pacific climate variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48(2017).
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