资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

2月10日，《自然·气候变化》（Nature Climate Change）发表题为《高于1.5 ℃的一年表明地球极有可能在20年内达到<巴黎协定>的限值》（A Year Above 1.5 °C Signals that Earth is Most Probably Within the 20-year Period that Will Reach the Paris Agreement Limit）（以下简称“文章一”）和《保持在1.5 ℃水平的12个月比预期更早突破<巴黎协定>阈值》（Twelve Months at 1.5 °C Signals Earlier than Expected Breach of Paris Agreement Threshold）（以下简称“文章二”）的两篇文章，探讨了《巴黎协定》将升温控制在比工业化前水平高1.5 ℃的可能性。两项研究均指出，地球正在跨越全球变暖 1.5 ℃的阈值，表明地球可能已步入气候危机新阶段。

[1] A Year Above 1.5  °C Signals that Earth is Most Probably Within the 20-year Period that Will Reach the Paris Agreement Limit. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02246-9

[2] Twelve Months at 1.5  °C Signals Earlier than Expected Breach of Paris Agreement Threshold. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-025-02247-8