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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3446-3 |
Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean | |
Ramesh, Nandini1,2; Cane, Mark A.2; Seager, Richard2; Lee, Dong Eun2 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 49 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The Tropical Pacific Ocean displays persistently cool sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last several years to a decade, with either no El Nio events or a few weak El Nio events. These cause large-scale droughts in the extratropics, including major North American droughts such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, and also modulate the global mean surface temperature. Here we show that two models with different levels of complexity-the Zebiak-Cane intermediate model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1-are able to produce such periods in a realistic manner. We then test the predictability of these periods in the Zebiak-Cane model using an ensemble of experiments with perturbed initial states. Our results show that in most cases the cool mean state is predictable. We then apply this method to make retrospective forecasts of shifts in the decadal mean state and to forecast the mean state of the Tropical Pacific Ocean for the upcoming decade. Our results suggest that the Pacific will undergo a shift to a warmer mean state after the 2015-2016 El Nio. This could imply the cessation of the drier than normal conditions that have generally afflicted southwest North America since the 1997-1998 El Nio, as well as the twenty-first-century pause in global warming. Implications for our understanding of the origins of such persistent cool states and the possibility of improving predictions of large-scale droughts are discussed. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000410803300005 |
WOS关键词 | NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; NORTH-AMERICAN DROUGHT ; EL-NINO ; LONG RAINS ; PART I ; VARIABILITY ; MODEL ; CLIMATE ; MODULATION ; HIATUS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35521 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Oceanog 105F, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ramesh, Nandini,Cane, Mark A.,Seager, Richard,et al. Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,49. |
APA | Ramesh, Nandini,Cane, Mark A.,Seager, Richard,&Lee, Dong Eun.(2017).Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,49. |
MLA | Ramesh, Nandini,et al."Predictability and prediction of persistent cool states of the Tropical Pacific Ocean".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 49(2017). |
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