Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3688-8 |
May common model biases reduce CMIP5's ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Nina-like cooling? | |
Luo, Jing-Jia1; Wang, Gang2; Dommenget, Dietmar3 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 50页码:1335-1351 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; USA |
英文摘要 | Over the recent three decades sea surface temperate (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific has decreased, which helps reduce the rate of global warming. However, most CMIP5 model simulations with historical radiative forcing do not reproduce this Pacific La Nia-like cooling. Based on the assumption of "perfect" models, previous studies have suggested that errors in simulated internal climate variations and/or external radiative forcing may cause the discrepancy between the multi-model simulations and the observation. But the exact causes remain unclear. Recent studies have suggested that observed SST warming in the other two ocean basins in past decades and the thermostat mechanism in the Pacific in response to increased radiative forcing may also play an important role in driving this La Nia-like cooling. Here, we investigate an alternative hypothesis that common biases of current state-of-the-art climate models may deteriorate the models' ability and can also contribute to this multi-model simulations-observation discrepancy. Our results suggest that underestimated inter-basin warming contrast across the three tropical oceans, overestimated surface net heat flux and underestimated local SST-cloud negative feedback in the equatorial Pacific may favor an El Nio-like warming bias in the models. Effects of the three common model biases do not cancel one another and jointly explain similar to 50% of the total variance of the discrepancies between the observation and individual models' ensemble mean simulations of the Pacific SST trend. Further efforts on reducing common model biases could help improve simulations of the externally forced climate trends and the multi-decadal climate fluctuations. |
英文关键词 | Pacific cooling trend CMIP5 simulations Common model biases Air-sea interactions Inter-basin influence |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425328700036 |
WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE TRENDS ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; WARMING SLOWDOWN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; ENSO ; HIATUS ; OSCILLATION ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; SST |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35487 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bur Meteorol, Level 9,700 Collins St, Melbourne, Vic 3008, Australia; 2.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Monash Univ, Sch Earth Atmosphere & Environm, Melbourne, Vic, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luo, Jing-Jia,Wang, Gang,Dommenget, Dietmar. May common model biases reduce CMIP5's ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Nina-like cooling?[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,50:1335-1351. |
APA | Luo, Jing-Jia,Wang, Gang,&Dommenget, Dietmar.(2018).May common model biases reduce CMIP5's ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Nina-like cooling?.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,50,1335-1351. |
MLA | Luo, Jing-Jia,et al."May common model biases reduce CMIP5's ability to simulate the recent Pacific La Nina-like cooling?".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 50(2018):1335-1351. |
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