Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3988-z |
Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin | |
Barkhordarian, Armineh1,2; von Storch, Hans3; Zorita, Eduardo3; Loikith, Paul C.4; Mechoso, Carlos R.1,2 | |
2018-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:1901-1914 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Germany |
英文摘要 | We investigate whether the recently observed trends in daily maximum and minimum near-surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin, respectively) over South America (SA) are consistent with the simulated response of Tmin and Tmax to anthropogenic forcing. Results indicate that the recently observed warming in the dry seasons is well beyond the range of natural (internal) variability. In the wet season the natural modes of variability explain a substantial portion of Tmin and Tmax variability. We demonstrate that the large-scale component of greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing is detectable in dry-seasonal warming. However, none of the global and regional climate change projections reproduce the observed warming of up to 0.6 K/Decade in Tmax in 1983-2012 over northern SA during the austral spring (SON). Thus, besides the global manifestation of GHG forcing, other external drivers have an imprint. Using aerosols-only forcing simulations, our results provide evidence that anthropogenic aerosols also have a detectable influence in SON and that the indirect effect of aerosols on cloud's lifetime is more compatible with the observed record. In addition, there is an increasing trend in the observed incoming solar radiation over northern SA in SON, which is larger than expected from natural (internal) variability alone. We further show that in the dry seasons the spread of projected trends based on the RCP4.5 scenario derived from 30 CMIP5 models encompasses the observed area-averaged trends in Tmin and Tmax. This may imply that the observed excessive warming in the dry seasons serve as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the region. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000442433200017 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; DEFORESTATION ; AEROSOLS ; TRENDS ; AMAZON |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35473 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 2.CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA; 3.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany; 4.Portland State Univ, Dept Geog, Portland, OR 97207 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barkhordarian, Armineh,von Storch, Hans,Zorita, Eduardo,et al. Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:1901-1914. |
APA | Barkhordarian, Armineh,von Storch, Hans,Zorita, Eduardo,Loikith, Paul C.,&Mechoso, Carlos R..(2018).Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,1901-1914. |
MLA | Barkhordarian, Armineh,et al."Observed warming over northern South America has an anthropogenic origin".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):1901-1914. |
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