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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-016-3499-3 |
Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2 | |
Kusunoki, Shoji | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 51页码:4601-4617 |
文章类型 | Article;Proceedings Paper |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | We conducted global warming projections using global atmospheric models with high-horizontal resolution of 20-km (MRI-AGCM3.2S, the 20-km model) and 60-km (MRI-AGCM3.2H, the 60-km model) grid sizes. For the present-day climate of 21years from 1983 to 2003, models were forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures (SST). For the future climate of 21years from 2079 to 2099, models were forced with future SST distributions projected by the models of the Fifth phase of Couple Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Ensemble simulations for four different SST distributions and three different cumulus convection schemes were conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of projection. The simulations consistently project the increase of precipitation over eastern China for almost all months. In June, precipitation decreases over Japan and increases over the ocean to the south of Japan. The geographical distribution of precipitation change tends to depend relatively on the cumulus convection scheme and horizontal resolution of models rather than on SST distributions. The time evolution of pentad mean precipitation over Japan indicates the delay in the onset of Japanese rainy season in June. This delay can be attributed to the decrease of water vapor transport toward Japan associated with the southward shift of the subtropical high. Change in the subtropical high can be interpreted as the southward shift of the local Hadley circulation. The intensity of precipitation increases over most part of East Asia, while the possibility of drought will increase over Japan, the East China Sea and the area to the south of Japan. |
英文关键词 | Precipitation East Asia Global warming projection Japanese rainy season |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; ISTP |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000451725600041 |
WOS关键词 | BAIU RAIN BAND ; SUMMER MONSOON ; 20-KM ; SIMULATION ; RESOLUTION ; CMIP3 ; CHINA ; EXTREMES |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35471 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Meteorol Res Inst, Climate Res Dept, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kusunoki, Shoji. Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51:4601-4617. |
APA | Kusunoki, Shoji.(2018).Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51,4601-4617. |
MLA | Kusunoki, Shoji."Future changes in precipitation over East Asia projected by the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51(2018):4601-4617. |
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