Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5fb3 |
Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China | |
Zhang, Lixia1,2; Wu, Peili3; Zhou, Tianjun1 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 12期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | The frequency of extreme summer drought has been increasing in North China during the past sixty years, which has caused serious water shortages. It remains unclear whether anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the increasing extreme droughts. Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations with various combinations of historical forcings, the authors investigated the driving mechanism behind the observed changes. Metrological drought is usually measured by precipitation anomalies, which show lower fidelity in current climate models compared to largescale circulation patterns. Based on NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, a linear relationship is firstly established between the weakest regional average 850 hPa southerly winds and extreme summer drought. This meridional winds index (MWI) is then used as a proxy for attribution of extreme North China drought using CMIP5 outputs. Examination of the CMIP5 simulations reveals that the probability of the extreme summer droughts with the first percentile of MWI for 1850-2004 under anthropogenic forcing has increased by 100%, on average, relative to a pre-industrial control run. The more frequent occurrence of extremely weak MWIs or drought over North China is ascribed from weakened climate and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation due to the direct cooling effect from increased aerosol. |
英文关键词 | drought anthropogenic forcing attribution climate change |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000397606500003 |
WOS关键词 | ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOLS ; MONSOON ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; RESPONSES ; CMIP3 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/35443 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Lixia,Wu, Peili,Zhou, Tianjun. Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,12(3). |
APA | Zhang, Lixia,Wu, Peili,&Zhou, Tianjun.(2017).Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,12(3). |
MLA | Zhang, Lixia,et al."Aerosol forcing of extreme summer drought over North China".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 12.3(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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